Early Guineas Thought....

Morning All ,
                    Looking thru the early markets this morning i cannot understand why KINGSTON HILL  is still being overlooked as all the big money is being piled into Kingman , Australia and War Command.
Dont get me wrong the last named trio are or could be very very good indeed and all shown good or excellent levels of form already and any one of that trio may come good on the day however...Kingston Hill has done nothing wrong either ( Low 8/1 with Ladbrokes >> High 13.0 with Betfair ) .

..........

The above video is as you can see from last years Racing Post Trophy where Kingston Hill Won with any amount of ease on soft ground....and the rain has come and will continue.....Travelled well , quickened , rallied then run on and was never really even off the bridle , this has Champion written all over it . Yes i have seen some exquisite 2yr olds before like Be My Chief , High Estate ( from the good ol days with Cecil ) and plenty more since that have never reached the heights as a 3 yr old but this looks different it really does , i know its without a run but would have been brought along nicely over the winter by a great trainer ( in great form as well ).

The times ( not the splits or fractions ) can be misleading in most but can be used as a temporal guide to a horses performance barometer , that is that if a horse is proven to run to a level on any ground then it has that ability the speed ratings ( many done individually ) can be adjusted up or down manually ( all median times are worked on a good/fast ground timescale ) ie : if a horse has run 1m in 1m40s on soft ground ( true soft ground ) then you can quite easily knock a second off that time ( based around course averages ) in some cases upto two seconds can be levied against any given time but you have to try and factor in how the race was run..was it a true run race ?...was their a pacemaker ?  , did the pace that arrive become genuine ? ,....there are a number of factors that can alter a time , or splits giving it a false or inaccurate reading so these variables have to be factored in when trying to do a true adjusted time rating ( or speed rating )...but you can work from the base figures with a degree of accuracy that will allow you to determine how a horse can run and what type of time figures to expect ( not pure math , not gteed but can be used as a supplementary aid ).

Now Kingston Hill has himself run twice with two completely different set of markers laid out ( 3 runs in total ) , in the Autumn stakes he Won very easily in a very good time ( 1m38s ) which is a similar time to Henrythenavigator , King of Kings and Rodrigo De Triano when they won the 2000 Guineas however it has be shown historically that a good winning time in a fast run ( true run ) race would need to be around 1m35.50 however given the forecast for soft ground and the potential for further rain this figure can be up-scaled to 1m38 - 1m40s which is the range in which we know Kingston Hill can run in soft ground.
Times are argumentative tho as Mister Baileys holds the course record yet turned out to be quite a duffer and Frankel himself only recorded 1m37 in a bloodless victory....so many things are not exact..but it can be used as a guide...one thing for sure you must be able to race at sub 1m40s on true ground to win..thats a fact...

If Kingston Hill has as we expect " trained on " and if the ground continues on the soft side of good ( as we hope )  then i see no reason why Kingston Hill wont lay in wait in around 5th or 6th spot until around just before the 1f marker then quickening up and going on for a good victory , i will be quite shocked if it cannot place at the minimum but in all honesty i am looking for the win here and at between 9/1 - 12/1 i think this is an OUTSTANDING bet either Win or EW......Australia is so far all hype over substance , Kingman is not only ground averse but looks more of an out n out sprinter in truth , Toormore will get found out...War Command looks a lively threat as does the Hannon 2nd string Shifting Power in what looks to have the makings of one of the best run 2000 Guineas in many a year...Whatever you decide...Good Luck.

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The Friday Post....

Evening all ,
                 As the flat season gathers a pace we find ourselves nicely spoilt for a Friday as we have both Donny* and SANDOWN having meetings and both look decent with imo Sandown being the pick as it holds some very nice looking races indeed and i will be producing a card for this , Sandown itself is a grade 1 track which is a true track that lets horses run as they should and usually returns a solid set of results.
 Course Details

Flat Course

Effect Of Draw

None

Right-handed oval of 1m5f with 4f uphill run-in. Essentially galloping. Separate diagonal 5f also uphill

So there ya go..lets crack on with Friday's 7 Race Card....
                                                               SANDOWN

RACE 1
WIN - SACRED ACT -
EW - END OF LINE - 3rd @ 3.75
LONG - CRICKLEWOOD GREEN -

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a very decent looking ESHER CUP a race over 1m for 3yo's and not a race that favours Favourites by statistics as few ever do well here which is not surprising as the Fav is usually that on last seasons form or hype and both are frail stats to look upon as so many come having improved a stone or are just early to hand types.
Against the Stats John Gosden ( Won this in 2009 & 2010 ) looks to have the winner in Secret Act a horse that Won well over 1m on soft ground despite carrying his head high and running green but was full of running and with natural improvement expected this should easily turn into a 110+ horse and could well be the winner in this but i will look for some value against it today.
Richard Hannon ( now Jnr ) runs two ( has also won this twice in recent years ) and stable jockey Richard Hughes returns to riding by taking the ride aboard Art Official who ran some fine races last year but will have to have improved significantly to trouble the fav and the other Cricklewood Green has yet to encounter softer going but looks a very nice sort open to any amount of improvement.
End of Line is the mount of out of form Jamie Spencer and was a shock winner fto winning at 25/1 but won that maiden very very easily by a cosy 6L and this is the proverbial dark horse....
First Flight was a weak maiden winner that then got thrashed on ideal ground in the Acomb stakes and with the ground now out of favour has to be over looked.
Almargo won 3 times on the AW but this godolphin cast off has beaten nothing of note and is another that has far too many questions to answer and cant be considered as a bet.
What about Carlo and Streetforce look to be heading into moderate Hcaps after this as both are exposed and look no better than a rating of around 74 so have it all to do....
So after my analysis i can find no value alternative to the Fav...sigh...such a shame....its current price of 3.25 does allow for some BTL action and currently that is the only bet choice i have , however if it stays between 3.30 - 3.85 then it becomes a max LTB.

NOTES : 

__________________________________
RACE 2
WIN - TELESCOPE ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 3.83
EW - NOBLE MISSION - 1st @ 5.60
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up its the Gordon Richard Stakes for the older brigade ( 4yr + ) and it looks a decent turn out.
Yes its a small field but its a good quality field with all the runners having shown a good or better level of form. The first one we simply have to mention is TELESCOPE...Once talked about as a possible Derby Favourite and possible legend this had trouble in training and only ran three times last year with the best of them in the final outing when winning a good Voltiguer this bypassed last years St Leger for " better " engagements which never came to pass but this will be his season..im sure of it...this is a seriously classy sort and it will take either a world class run to beat him or he turns up and runs well below par...but any run to form and he wins this probably hard held....
Noble Mission a full brother to Frankel is a horse i love..its all heart ( and a bit of class ) but is not quite group 1 class that said this is his perfect trip ( only just stays 1m4f ) loves all ground ( bar heavy ) and will make them all go and should Telescope not turn up will be the one battling on to take advantage.
Sky Hunter who won four from 5 for A Fabre last term could be anything as its relatively untried but on his first outing in the UK will have to be at least as good as his official rating just to get involved.....the rest..well...good honest performers that really shouldnt be able to get a blow in at this level....

NOTES : Having also made Sky Hunter my LOTD ( posted on PUK ) ..this was a big boom race for me ;-)))

__________________________________
RACE 3
WIN - MONTIRIDGE - 2nd @ 4.73
EW - TOP NOTCH TONTO -
LONG - GARSWOOD -

SUMMARY : Another for the older brigade as we head into the Bet365 Mile and this is packed with class ( based on old and current form ) ...if you was to look into the back form on most of these then just about any could win...very tough race...so i think i may stick with current form and not let my heart get involved...#
This will be a good earner for me as i will be laying both Pentinent and Tullius @ around 8.0 as neither will be winning this unless something incredible happens or the perpetrators of flight MH370 are involved...
The winner will come from the trio of GARSWOOD , TOP NOTCH TONTO or MONTIRIDGE , TNT really come into form and his own last season with four or five runs of the highest quality and considering he was struggling in Hcaps and the ilk before it was a brilliant rise up the ranks...can he sustain it this year ??...well i can only say "time will tell" . 
Personally i like to stick with not just proven form ( TNT ) but pure class , a blood dripping blue and a horse that has always and continues to run to form or thereabouts...and for me the class is with MONTIRIDGE...at 2 he was 2nd in the Autumn Stakes ( after winning his maiden with ease ) , at 3 he Won the Heron Stakes ( Listed ) , Head 2nd in the Jersey Stakes , Won the Pink Stubbs ( Listed ) , Won the Bonhams Stakes , ...then put a no show in the Bet Fred Mile in which Top Notch Tonto Won easily and was then a moderate 2nd to Soft Falling Rain in the Nayef Joel Stakes, now those last two runs were 2 too many as its my opinion he had just too much racing last year and was pretty much burnt out after a long hard season and just went off the boil...I think this former CD winner will be right back to his mercurial best today and will have too much kick for the others.
GARSWOOD is a bit of an enigma , liked by me for the 2000 Guineas last year it never really got going and has quite a bit of form to over turn to beat these, the step up in trip may help but then again ..it may not...wouldnt be a total shock if it won..just very unlikely...but will be back to winning ways sooner rather than later , a nice sort that deserves some success but will it be here or back sprinting ??...watch this space.

NOTES : Ground is now soft and that changes everything....anything could now win...1443pm>> As expected the 3 outsiders all of which had superior soft ground form were at the fore...Tullius wins ( both of my Lays were caped pre race as posted on PRFB ).

__________________________________
RACE 4
WIN - WESTERN HYMN - 1st @ 1.59
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Now we have a Derby Trial and a race that has had as much bearing on the outcome as i have...and this race looks pants tbh with only WESTERN HYMN offering any slivers of class and i am going to hope that class wins the day.
I really dont know what to say about the remainder..a poor bunch with poor form , poor attitudes and little to like . Most have been running in low grade shit that means most are nothing more than average Hcappers at best and if Western Hymn cant win this on the bridle then he may as well go to stud now.
I cant even summon the energy to write about the others as they shouldnt be lining up in a Derby Trial...Polytrack ( AW ) winners and runners, Group 4 and 5 runners and not even winners...this is shit....Western Hymn...Win or Fuck Off....

NOTES : Not very impressive but did run green , will improve...will need to tho...

__________________________________
RACE 5
WIN - CHARLES MOLSON -
EW - PUSHKIN MUSEUM -
LONG - HEY CHEWED - 2nd @ 15.80

SUMMARY : Next up is a race for 3 yr olds over 5f with 12 runners and plenty of pace this is a tough race to call.
Sacha Park is a complete dog regardless of its win lto i wouldnt back this with bags of dog shit and will gladly lay this all day long...
Stars above Me could be anything and is open to bags of improvement and is best watched just now but isnt out of it. Desert Ace is a CD winner but won an ordinary race in a slow time so gives me nothing , PUSHKIN MUSEUM has only won two egg n spoon AW races but did so quite well and rattled home two decent times with decent splits so is high on my list of probables and with Moore ridng ...yes this could be the one.
CHARLES MOLSON arrives from in form ( and excellent trainer of sprinters ) H Candy and is another which could easily improve 20lb through the season and must go on the shortlist and finally i think we should have HEY CHEWED whose best run was at Yarmouth when he clocked some very quick times and any improvement ( or run to form ) will put him bang in the mix.

NOTES : i Was convinced i had Ecclestone ( Winner ) as my WIN selection.....read it a million times yet never twigged...but i backed it from my subconscious regardless...very strange...

__________________________________
RACE 6
WIN - SWEEPING UP - NON RUNNER -
EW - TIME SIGNAL ( Champs Elysees runner ) -
LONG - MILLIONAIRES ROW -

SUMMARY : The Stoute camp won this last year so the superbly-bred Time Signal is one to keep an eye on as she makes her debut. Nancy From Nairobi was a 40/1 chance on her debut at Newbury but ran really well and the experience won't have been lost on her. Sweeping Up is by Sea The Stars and a half-sister to several useful winners. She'll be much better suited by today's trip and should put the experience gained last season to good use. Wahgah started odds-on for her debut in a Newmarket maiden but disappointed and the form hasn't worked out. With the Gosden yard in unstoppable form, MILLIONAIRES ROW looks a logical selection to make a winning start as she's a half-sister to three winners including a Grade 1 winner in the USA. Perfect Light is by Galileo out of the very speedy Beauty Bright and related to a couple of winners so she's also worth a market check.

NOTES : 

__________________________________
RACE 7
WIN - WINDSHEAR - 1st @ 13/8
EW - ELITE ARMY - 3rd @ 5/2
LONG - HYMNENAIOS -

SUMMARY : A very tricky finale with most of these having the scope to go on to better things though Richard Hannon has a very strong hand with Hymenaios and WINDSHEAR, who both made impressive reappearances. The former made his debut over this trip on soft ground at Doncaster and came through smoothly from the back to land a maiden going away. He can go well but it's his stablemate who has to be the selection as his close second to the well-supported Cloudscape over this trip at Newmarket was a cracking effort and, with the winner now rated 94, Richard Hughes' mount looks very well treated. Taghrooda is by Sea The Stars out of a triple Listed winner who stayed 1m6f so this could prove on the short side but Elite Army did everything right at Kempton and there's much more to come. It's impossible to find one without a chance of sorts and Gothic appreciated soft ground to score at Leicester while Mannaro justified strong support to land a decent Yarmouth maiden.

NOTES : 

__________________________________The ground killed a lot today <<<<<<>>>>>>

Afternoon Blog Fans...

Hi all , im back from Sunny Spain and have swapped ...for this... Oh the Joys.....Back to reality it is and on with the weekly trading , race cards etc but i must say i find the Flat season a million times more enjoyable than NH , i have no real reason why this is i just get a bigger buzz from it so i should be reasonably happy till November Now....
**Rib Update .....As a few of you may know i fell off a 10ft concrete wall onto the corner of a smaller 4ft Concrete wall cracking 3 ribs and causing some scarring to my lower right forearm...this was imo an accident however those that were with me the night it happen will just say it was me having a drink too many and thinking i was Spiderman ;().....I can breathe a lot better and until i sneezed this morning was thinking i was on the road for a decent recovery and was even thinking i may be better in time for the May Golf comp at Cottingham park....but sneezing sets me back at least by a day or two and still causes me great discomfort although i do truly feel i will be ready for the Golf comp in Malaga in June with the WPGS ......fingers crossed the next couple of weeks turns out ok....

On the horse front we have some nice looking sorts coming out to play as it is Trials season after all and we start the week in earnest tmrw at Epsom with a Derby Trial and a couple of old enemies lining up in the Hcaps which tbf look quite competitive , elsewhere i do believe that at Xmas i advised you guys to get stuck into LFC for the Prem Title @ 12/1 as i felt they had a very good chance and were over priced.....they now lead by 5 points and are 1.18 with just a few games left.....and Moyes has been asked to leave Man Utd...he should not have taken the job...it was a task too much for any man, poor squad, low funds , following Sir Alex.....this was a poison Chalice..poor bloke...he doesnt deserve the stick hes getting imo even tho i didnt feel he was a big enough character to take this role on he was never going to be a success and certainly not in his first season...it took Alex the Great 4 seasons to produce and the myth is he was a game away from getting sacked himself....he will recover and will do well with another team as i feel he is a decent enough manager but not for Man Utd...

On the Golf front in  particular the USPGA tour we have some good results coming thru with some nice bets landed thus far and the trading has been meaty , Speith still needs following as does Adam Scott , Dufner , Kuchar , Westwood and Donald will all be up there in all comps and we also have two or three breaking thru or coming back and obv dont forget this years masters Master Bubba Watson....mercurial , bizarre but at times astonishing....Tiger has turned into a flat track bully , Big Phil is making too many errors and the old guard are done....

Right..so onto Epsom tmrw....

EPSOM > > >

RACE 1 : 
WIN - NEW FOREST - NON RUNNER -
EW - TAAJUB - unp
LONG - FITZ FLYER - unp

SUMMARY : A 15 runner 5f Hcap ..for Epsom this is a tough start however it will be held on near perfect racing ground so it should give us a fair result. As with all sprints and sprinters nothing can be taken for granted as they flick in and out of form at a drop of a hat.
Stone of Folca wud be the best of these at his best but that hasnt been the case for some time now, often shows up well but looks a 4f horse these days and the openings for those races are nil....but it did run a time of 53 secs once so has to be respected for that alone...
TAAJUB still retains plenty of ability and is capable of winning a race like this and comes into this with a bit of recent form having won on his penultimate start but true to fashion ran a nothing race next time out , capable and worth a punt if big odds for a chancey EW.
We also have quite a few CD winners coming out and tbh i think at this stage you could just throw a blanket over half a dozen...New Forest has it all to do off top weight and will probably give a couple to strong today so my idea of a punt in this is FITZ FLYER , you can write off his last two runs and then focus on the good solid form previously , runs well fresh in fact is probably at his best after a break , likes the trip , likes all field sizes , can adapt his racing style to suit although i feel the bigger fields are more conducive to his racing CV , has Fallon riding and will go off at biggish double figure odds and is well worth a few pennies EW.

NOTES :  Winner ( Caspian Prince ) got away out front and nothing else really got involved....poor race but well judged ride from Kirby...
________________________________
RACE 2 : 
WIN - JAKEY - unp
EW - AZRAG - NON RUNNER -
LONG - BEACON LADY - 1ST @ 19.40

SUMMARY : Another race now for the older brigade but this time its a 1m4f affair and it looks a cracker . This isnt one to get too involved in unless you really feel you have an angle as to me it looks wide open , a super competitive affair where some judgement may be swayed by the heart rather than the head....
JAKEY is an interesting runner for Pat Phelan as this has only been out 4 times coming 7th twice and 1st twice inc a Win here at Epsom over 10f and with its distance winning time well within the scope of this race this son of Cape Cross surely has every chance although i would want double figure odds before i got tempted.
Red Runway has to be taken on as i feel its tripless and paceless and will find at least half a dozen too good..Place Lay for me at anything i can get at 6/4 ( 2.5 ) or under...
Dark Ruler & Certavi both arrive from yards more known for their NH exploits but can ready a flat winner or three and both have to be respected as potential winners.
Aryal looks a bit doggish and can be Place Laid also...Semeen i think has form figures that flatter and is in my opinion Class 4 at best and more likely to win in class 5 events it has beaten nothing of note and looks weak.

NOTES : Won a few quid on the dutch with a nice priced winner but did better on the two Place Lays as both ran unplaced...;-)
________________________________
RACE 3 : 
WIN - OUR CHANEL - 1st @ 21.50
EW - MOONTIME -
LONG - TRIP TO PARIS -

SUMMARY : Now its time for the days main race and its the Derby Trial over 1m2f in which we have two interesting runners from Gosden , a seasonal debut from Moontime from the boys in blue , The over rated but battle hard Hartnell and the remainder that all look like they could be tasty...do you row in with the Sea the Stars progeny as a bet out of loyalty , go with form , names...yes you really need to clutching some straws here.
The first one i really like is by a sire i will be following closely this year English Chanel and the horse is the Charlie Hills colt OUR CHANEL which has so far run over 5f,6f and 7f and in winning the latter named was going on strong at the business end and with a bit of strengthening up , age and experience im expecting this to run to around 110 at least today ( will be needed ) and this could prove the answer in a tricky puzzle.
The next on my list is MOONTIME who although not entered for the Derby ( Gelded but then neither of the Gosden pair are entered ) could prove good enough to add some stock to the otherwise disappointing bloodline that is Sea the Stars...
Lastly im gonna stick a few EW pennies on TRIP TO PARIS because its from one of my fav NH pedigrees and sires in Champs Elysee's , doesnt make any real sense but this for a Derby trial is fucking bollocks in truth and the more i have gone through all relevant data the more disappointed i have become... 

NOTES : Another nice winner and well backed by me at 21.50 ;-)
________________________________
RACE 4 : 
WIN - AJMAN BRIDGE - NON RUNNER -
EW - CLAYTON - 2nd @ 11.50
LONG - CHARLES CAMOIN -

SUMMARY : Clayton is up 6lb for landing a strong Pontefract handicap on soft ground and should go well but this looks tough though he holds Sennockian Star on that run. Red Avenger was placed in two handicaps at this level before failing in a Group 3 and the Cambridgeshire and this looks more his class. Hi There could do with some rain but showed up well on his reappearance in the Lincoln and has to be respected, especially as he holds several of these on his victory at Newbury in October. Tres Coronas is 12lb higher than his last victory though the booking of Mikael Barzalona catches the eye while Ajman Bridge has only run four times and has more scope than most of these rivals. Rock Choir couldn't quite cope with Listed company after victories at Goodwood and Newbury but looks on a fair mark and has to be a threat though the vote in a wide-open handicap goes to PASAKA BOY, the winner of a competitive handicap here last summer and just 2lb higher despite scoring again at Newbury on his final start.

NOTES :
________________________________
RACE 5 : 
WIN -D'AVIGNON -
EW - RAVENOUS - 1st @ 3.74
LONG - N/A

SUMMARY : The Hannon yard has won this twice in the past four years and though After The Goldrush has only looked moderate so far and will need to find more this isn't the strongest looking maiden. D'AVIGNON has something to live up to as his dam has produced six earlier foals and all have won including Group 1 winner Rainbow View. John Gosden's colt looked in need of a stiffer test on both starts last term and should get it here. Moshe is likely to need further than this as will Ravenous, who couldn't go the pace over 7f at Doncaster but had run well over a mile on his final start last season. Swilken was a 50/1 chance when runner-up at Lingfield but the winner has been beaten three times subsequently while Permitted has been well beaten in both starts.

NOTES :
________________________________
RACE 6 : 
WIN - BLACK CEASAR - NON RUNNER -
EW - BEACH BAR - 2nd @ 9.20
LONG - KILLING TIME -

SUMMARY : Another tricky race for punters to fathom. Black Caesar attempted to make all over 7f at Lingfield and will have benefited greatly from the run while Beach Bar ended his first campaign with a victory over a mile on that track and looks certain to improve this year. KILLING TIME made excellent progress last season winning at Windsor and Kempton, both times in blinkers. He wasn't wearing them on his reappearance at Doncaster where he looked just in need of the run and, as they are back on here, he gets the vote. Chatez is by the sprinter Dandy Man but is a half-brother to two winning bumpers. He looked a nice type when scoring at Newbury and is by no means harshly treated for his handicap debut. Mime Dance won a 7f maiden here in September when the ground was soft and it's difficult to rule out any of the remainder in a wide-open contest.

NOTES :
________________________________

Summary for WEDS...

Hi All ,

Well i think Weds was a success overall even tho two of the MAX lays ended up winning but they did trade in running ( results to follow ) ....and Bon Voyage went off at 7.57 which meant that it was a 1/2 Max Lay but still its a win , we also hit a very nice winner in Magnus Maximus at 35.50.....meaning the longshots would remain the days best earners....rare but nice...

Win Selection Winners = 3 @ 3.78 , 2.76 & 1.89 plus places at 7.60 , 3.32 and 3.72 giving a return or run from ALL 6 races....this would have made a nice EW ACCA ( $1 EW acca returns approx $13.10 returning over 6/1 on stake ).

EW selection returns > Rather oddly very poor return from the EW's with just one place at 6.4.....so this wasnt the place to be looking today.....

Longshot Selections > 1st at a huge 35.50 , 2nd @ 11.41 and a 2nd @ 4.54 meant that for the funsters ( Ricky , Paula etc ) this could have been a profitable day on a level stakes basis.

Thru the card with all selections we hit the placepot easy amassing 16 Lines but at $25.30 this wud result in a full spread loss unless you clipped and used the nap as a banker.

TRADES / LAYS > Well we had 3 Main Lays which to be traded , First biggy was Bon Voyage which went off at 7.4 and never did anything and never traded lower this was an easy trade, the 2nd was SHIFTING POWER this went off at 2.76 and hit 30.0 in the run so was another very trade and finally we had SANDIVA which went of at around 4.8 but was easily matched in the run at 10.0  ( Last two runners both ended up winning ) so all in all i would say this was a cast success.....i just hope you guys are learning the value and art of trading rather than riding your luck......

Imo i think the years first proper post was a success...Views anyone ?...

Early Thursday Thoughts....

 Morning / Afternoon , Another sunny day means another " Beach Day " and so for the early Thursday review i will focus on the days 4 main big trial races and hopefully i can guide you to some profit or give you another angle in which you can dissect and scrutinise....

Todays 1st Race is the WOOD DITTON a race for 3 yr olds over 1m and a race won previously by the likes of Mukhadram although in truth the winner of this rarely goes on to win much after and looking through the entire field of the last 3 years renewals i dont hold much hope for any in truth...this seems like a white elephant of a race....a poison chalice if you like....
But i will offer my own unique insight to try and unravel this affair...here goes..The first on my list would have to be the very well bred PRINCE OF STARS from Mick Channon and ridden by G Lee this Son of Sea The Stars son is a proper half sister to the very good Lady of the Desert ( 1st: 2009 Princess Margaret Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, Ascot), 2009 Lowther Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, York), 2010 Diadem Stakes (GB-Gr2,3yo+,1200m,Ascot)
2nd: 2010 Sprint Cup (GB-Gr1,3yo+,1200m,Haydock), 2010 Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (FR-G1,2yo+,5f-T,Longchamp)
3rd: 2009 Cheveley Park Stakes (GB-Gr1,2yo F,1200m,Newmarket), 2010 Fred Darling Stakes (GB-Gr3,3yo F,1400m,Newbury).) and could prove to be a very good , speedy 2 yr old and should be watched in the markets.

I also like the other Sea The Stars colt MAWASEEL although the dam has no real progeny performances to call upon but still looks blue bred but is also the 2nd string for the owner as Hanaghan has taken the ride on Tabreek but i will not back any USA bred unless the ground turns firm or the blood provides a strong reason to change.

Finally i have heard some good words and received good reports regarding the Haggis trained SATELLITE by Danehill Dancer and this could be a proper group horse...but time will tell.....

My Selection would be Satellite as a Win / Place Lay as a lot of these precocious types will be looked after if the chance to win has gone...but in all honesty its not really a race to get to madly involved in.

RACE 2 is....THE ABERNANT STAKES a race over 6f for 3yr olds plus and is usually won by a sprinter with a touch of class but rarely by the Fav....and that is a stat the irks me here as i feel ALJAMAHEER has an outstanding chance ...that said all of its best form is over 1m..admittedly this form is outstanding but its still not sprint form..so where do we look , Es Que Love is an absolute nutcase but an outstanding speedball and if the switch to Cox has had the desired effect this could try and make all and burn them all off...but a lot of if's n butt's here with this....
TROPICS is the horse that comes under the banner " out n out sprinter " and will give them all a race and if in the mood could easily be upto winning this but sprinters rarely run two races alike...a good option but its a bet on a whim...

To be honest the remainder have it all to do in this company although they all have some back form which entitles them to a tad of respect but none could be backed with any confidence.

Summary : The Stats say the Fav cant win , ALJAMAHEER has all its best form over 1m but i do think it could prove to be a class above these , a small field lacking in options and real class this lay between Aljamaheer and Tropics and i will be going in with a win on Aljamaheer and a saver on Tropics.

Todays third race and the principal race of this meeting is the Craven and this has again received a poor turnout , this won last year by the brilliant Toronado and has been won by the Favourite 5 times in the last 7 runs and 3 times in the last 4 and this years Favourite is likely to be 122 rated Toormore ( Toronado only rated 114 last year ) and this comes here unbeaten in 3 although i dont feel it beat much at the Curragh but its run in the Vintage Stakes was very good indeed and this will take a world of beating if back to that level or higher.
The Grey Gatsby doesnt look good enough and will have to have improved markedly to get involved here today , Be Ready and Postponed both look interesting ass they hold decent enough form already and with improvement expected could easily be upto making a race of this but Anjaal looked a bit of a speed merchant at 2 and will do well to transfer his form at 1m on the first go....

Everywhere you look it ends up coming back to the Fav and in all honesty backing against it here is a mugs bet...may pay off but you will need more luck than judgement to come out on top......SUMMARY : Win on the Fav is the only logical bet choice to make.

Finally we have the Earl of Sefton stakes for the older brigade  ( 4yr + ) and this is just packed with " ye olde enemies " as these all pretty much have form against one and other with some collateral form thrown in to mix it up.
FIRST MOHICAN can give Alan King a tidy winner as this former Cecil inmate is a very useful flat performer and destroyed a couple of good fields previously when winning tat York and Nottingham over this distance and any return to that form would put it in with a big chance.
Elsewhere JUST THE JUDGE will be looking to get his career back on track after running two very poor races last season as his season nosedived after 3 very good runs especially when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas and had only been denied by the brilliance of Sky Lantern and any real return of form and this will be hawking them all up and could easily run a place or better.
The remainder all have a Chance of sorts and a solid case could be reasonably made for any and i certainly wouldnt try and talk anyone out of backing the outsiders here as i really dont feel there are any.

Summary: I will be backing Just the Judge and First Mohican in a decent sized dutch and will looking to get small place lays matched at around the 1.12 mark as both have the potential to flatter only to deceive ....

Thats it for Day 2 as i hit the Bar once again....TTFN x

Afternoon from the Costa Blanca...

Hi All ,
         As i enter the final week of my stay in the sun i am starting to focus and gather my stats and this is why im posting this early card , thoughts and analysis for Weds as that heralds the start of the classic month as it is Craven time and this is when the shit gets real.....

The last couple of short posts have been fruitful and have provided plenty of profit bearing analysis and tip / bet selection...so im hoping im coming into this flt season on point and in tune although i dont have a breeding program to work from just yet im sure over the next few weeks this will come to light.

So lets take a look at Newmarket on WEDS and see how we fare...
As you can see this is a rather unique course and is also termed as the home of racing or HQ ( Head Quarters ) with most races  ( certainly upto 1m2f ) ran on a straight line where pace and tactics will be pivotal to any success , a strong front runner can do very well likewise a good strong finisher that is well ridden can easily find  spot to pounce and this is also  course that runs true and allows for a literal reading of form lines unless the ground rips up soft or worse as this can provide some odd times and stranger results.

NEWMARKET WEDS >>
Todays big three races will be the European Free Hcap , Nell Gwynn and the Fielden Stakes.......let the fun begin.

RACE 1
WIN - PROVIDENT SPIRIT - 1st @ 1.89
EW - EMIRATI SPIRIT -
LONG - SPECULATIVE BID -

ANALYSIS - A tricky 3 yr old maiden to start the card where most with experience look only average although improvement will be expected as the norm and we have a few well bred sorts.
The best bred is probably EMIRATI SPIRIT  a New Approach colt that looks to be Varians main hope as its being ridden by the stables newly appointed retained jockey A Atzeni and should be watched when betting starts any strong support would make me very keen and likewise if it is drifter then i would leave or lay.Imo the strongest with form is probably Provident Spirit but in truth all the form on offer is quite weak my personal preference is for Speculative Bid who ran well enough behind Jallota on his last run to suggest more improvement is in the offing and this could go off at decent price.
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RACE 2
WIN - HARRY HURRICANE -  ( EW NAP ) - 3rd @ 3.72
EW - FLYBALL -
LONG - ABSCENT FRIENDS - 2nd @ 11.41

ANALYSIS - Next up is a tidy little 5f race for 2yr old speedballs and this should in all honesty be dominated by the three that have form including winning form and they are FLYBALL , ABSCENT FRIENDS &  HARRY HURRICANE and my preference at this stage is for HARRY HURRICANE that was beaten fto by Flyball but was only beaten a neck/nose and now receives enough weight to easily turn the tables plus you would expect HH to carry more improvement into this as that was his first run and i feel a similar run will be good enough to both turn the tables and win although Flyball has proven to be a tough nut to crack, Abscent Friends comes from the wily yrd of Bill Turner and his speedsters re always ready and worth fearing at the early season stage however it won at Southwell fto and will do well to carry that form into this his first start on the turf but dont write off completely...
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RACE 3
WIN - TOOFI - 2nd @ 3.32
EW - WEDDING RING -
LONG - MAGNUS MAXIMUS - 1st @ 35.05

ANALYSIS - Now we have the 100k Tatts race for 3 yr olds over 6f with a rather poor turnout considering its a $54k race...just the 13 runners but at the same time this is a tight affair with very little to separate most of these , we lots of form both literal , lateral and collateral to decide upon and their is also a disparity in the weights /ratings.....
I think the first place to look is with TOOFI who is a CD winner and has multiple CD form and comes into this one of the highest rated , is racing on pretty much its ideal surface and this trip should be spot on although being by Henrythenavigator one would think or expect it to want 1m later on but at this stage this looks to me the likeliest winner and if betting win single only this would probably be my choice.
WEDDING RING could be interesting back over 6f who herself is a CD winner and also gets a sex allowance however her splits were average and the time a good bit slower than a few others plus she doesnt look a natural sprinter and after this a step back upto 7f or even another crack at 1m will surely be in the offing....
BON VOYAGE at anything remotely sensible will be a MAX LAY for me and i will also try to nil a bit in running as i see no way this winning today....or any day in this grade on available evidence.
The Richard Hannon 2nd string looks quite good tho MAGNUS MAXIMUS and could run a big race if trained on as it had some good splits in its last rce and this track will run ideal and you can throw a blanket over the remainder so a speculative longshot maybe Naadir for the Botti yard with Luke Morris riding.....
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RACE 4
WIN - SHIFTING POWER - 1st @ 2.76 ( hit 30.0 in run )
EW - MIRACLE OF MEDINAH -
LONG - MUSHIR - 2nd @ 4.54

ANALYSIS - The first of todays big races as we hold the European Free Handicap a race by many a star or horse of quality including the likes of last years winner Garswood ( didnt end up staying 1m but held its form over shorter throughout the season ) and ...well thats it really.....yes this is a reasonably high profile early season race but carries no weight now what so ever as just about every winner from the last twenty years has proven to be average  or worse with very few coming through to be anything else..../..another stat is that Favs have a rather shite record in this with the winner usually being either the second or third fav so this looks an obvious dutch to me in a small field event with an unbalanced book.
Tough to call the winner even with  dutch at this stage so i will say that come race day should Shifting Power be 2.6 or less then it simply becomes a MAX LAY as the bet and a trade is nailed on as this will be a very oddly run race with all bar The fav and Mushir likely pace setters.....
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RACE 5
WIN - MAJEYDA - 3rd @7.60
EW - EURO CHARLINE - 2nd @ 6.4
LONG - LILY RULES - 6th ( only beaten 3L @ 55.0 )

ANALYSIS - The second of the days big three races The Nell Gwynn a 7f affair with 15 runners and this looks pretty decent and rather competitive and it looks stacked with pace so expect fireworks...
The first runner to come up on my radar is LILY RULES a proven Distance winner that has shown on several occasions tht it stays the trip with ease, can race on or off the pce can quicken and has the heart for a fight and this was trained by the likes of Stoute , Appleby etc then it would be a good deal shorter...This could run a huge race at a Huge price....at the sort of odds im expecting then a few quid on a FAP is a no harm done bet.
Majeyda is a danger and will run a big race , another CD winner with excellent placed form over 1m  ( May Hill stakes being easily the best ) and will get  very smooth run through as SDS takes over from Inspector Clouseau in the saddle....i will be a little surprised if this cant place at least.
Miss Lillie heads a supporting cast of at least 10 others that all have claims of a sort....this is when it becomes a guessing game and personal choice takes over from the form guide and statistics...
***This race is a graveyard for Favourites....Sandiva at fair odds is a big Lay...( currently ) ...Sandiva went off the 4.98 Fav , WON but traded comfortably @ 10.0 in the run...another easy trade.
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RACE 6
WIN - TRUE STORY - 1st @ 3.80
EW - SOMEWHAT -
LONG - MADEED -

***First three home were well clear...

ANALYSIS - Possibly the toughest of the days featured races the Fielden over  tough 1m1f which not many can get and even less so this early on and it takes a proper staying sort to get this trip at pace which we have for sure.
a tricky race in which nearly 30lbs separates the top rated from the bottom but racing t level weights bar Somewhat who carries a penalty for winning a Class 1 ( Washington Singer ) over 7f t Newbury ( form at Newbury is always a dispute ) but must come into the reckoning as it was a good 2nd  ( beaten a neck ) in the Royal Lodge stakes over 1m and was running on strong t the end and i feel the step up in trip will be no problem at all although the ground will be an issue should it ride any softer than good.
Barley Mow looks a stayer in the making along with Madeed and Obliterator making this a good trials race for all the classics although last years winner Intello was the last half decent winner.....and again is another that Favs have a poor record........
TRUE STORY looks to be  very interesting runner from the boys in blue as both of its runs ( 1st n 2nd ) were here at HQ and both over 7f where it showed a willing attitude and being by Manduro will be expected to be an improved stayer over the course of the season as this bloodline is one that  improves with both age and distance and i am expecting big things from this and again its a billy bonus that SDS takes the ride ( still think he is nos 1 for the stable over the clown that is Barzalona ) .....

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So all in all a tough day with tough decisions but some quality racing and a day where we will have a good gauge on how stables are performing, jockeys are riding and what we are up against , today is not a day to smash as most races will require a watching brief but i think we can profit from some good Lays and trades as most have the opportunity for both , hopefully back tmrw for another advanced read on Thursdays card....
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**In the 1710 both AYRAD ( 5th )  and CONNECTICUT ( 3rd at 28.63 ) are on my long range breeders guide and in the 1740 KAAB and GREEB ( 3rd @ 8.41 ) both look interesting improvers....TTFN x

Morning Friends , Romans and Noblemen...

As i approach the back end of my protracted 4 week stay in Spain the flat  season has developed and grown and is approaching the realms of normality and today we get a couple of stars out to flex their respective muscle as Newbury today the Fred Darling and the Greenham and both look very very tough and getting the winner in these will prove very tricky indeed as so much has to be taken on trust as so much can change between 2 and 3 years old...i have seen some very smart and almost bomb proof two year olds do nothing as a 3 year old....so you can only trust your opinion on what is available and previously seen.
 Elsewhere......

Surely...surely.....MY TENT OR YOURS will prove too good at Ayr and take down their Scottish Champion Hurdle , with most inc Montbazon all looking up against it i see no way this loses today and i feel the 2.08 is an absolute steal as i in all honesty rate this at 1/2 ( 1.50 ) and i think this is a proper Value bet , this is too big to ignore......ALL IN >>>

Back over at Newbury...here are my thoughts for today as i start to step up a gear or two.....

In the opening Maiden race we have a hot fav in the shape of MUTAKAYYEF @ 2.08  and this has some form as it come 2nd fto running on at the end after looking green and awkward through the race but at no stage did this look like a star in the making and with the field packed with potential it simply has to be taken on....Max LTB for me.............the two i liked on  breeding Hoy Hoy and Elite Force are both 50/1....

Next up is a tough looking JOHN PORTER stakes race over 1m4f for the elder generation and this looks a very nice renewal ( for the bookmakers )....Personally i shall be sticking with Noble Mission  , this is out of blind (* and stupid ) loyalty as its far from being a certain winner but today is one of those days in which i like to unwind and have some fun .....For my Placepot i will be also including Quiz Mistress......Tough Tough race....

Finally for today ( running out of time ) we have the FRED DARLING a starting point for many a classic aspiration and this on paper looks red hot....JOYEUSE is my HCE tipping comp tip and i will obv be sticking with my Frankel connections here although it will have to not only be in top shape but will have to have improved at least 10lbs to get one over Al Thakira who looks the most likeliest winner on paper but Al Thakira is rated a very very high 9.96 on my Stat Scale  ( for Laying or LTB ) and this makes it a gold rated  , turbo charged..super MAX LTB for me.....and hopefully my HCE tip can show some improvement and sneak in....

So regrettably thats it for today but i will be home soon and the cards and analysis will start to return back to their normal levels...Good Luck today All...

SnapChat and views from the Costa ;-)

Hola ,

Buenos Dias Amigo's ,


The weather for April is again outstanding after a couple of days of light cloud and high winds we have now reverted to type...glorious blue skies, hot sun and warm air.....

Yesterdays blog provided a few ok bets and some solid analysis although i will confess to being a bit surprised at Guitar Pete winning with that late last 1f surge....but we hit 2nd , 3rd and 4th for a good run of consistency , plus we nailed the obvious dutch in the next and just lucked out with a 2nd in the race that followed and then we again hit 2nd with Oscar Whiskey as it was left to much to do and stormed home but just couldnt get there....cant complain on the day..profit was made and that is always good...

Another great winner from E.R.I.C yesterday  ( log into HCE and follow ) after a few quiet days and near misses , well worth following readers.

What have we for today...well day 2 of the great Aintree festival and its Ladies Day and it again looks a nice card with some quality about , as time is again of the premium i will not post a card but i will run right thru the card giving various betting and horse thoughts and it will be your job to find the diamonds among the coal.....

AINTREE DAY 2 >>>

Well we start the day of with a tasty looking 2m Hurdle race with JOSSES HILL coming in as a well supported 2.7 Fav having been properly smashed in for big money from 3.0 all the way down and in all honesty looks the likeliest winner on form and shown ability , its holds a few on literal form and a few others on collateral form and will be very hard to beat with the prospect of further improvement a given ( thru experience ) and not forgetting Hendo has won the race ( farmed ) 3 times in the last four years and the last twice with two very very high class sorts in Darlan and My Tent or Yours so is now thinking this is worth an upgrade ( Josses Hill ) , a win bet on this is probably the safest bet with the EW value hunters  lurking they would be wise to look at Baltimore Rock ( 11/1 ) who i know is well regarded and looks a very progressive type and is gteed to run its race.>>>RESULT > JOSSES HILL - 1st @ 2.54 ;-))

>>>>>

Battery has run out...looking for a charge point >>>>...

and im back......

RACE 2 >> ...The MILDMAY Chase and a small field that looks tight as so many have interlocking form and i feel the " Value " could lay with DON COSSACK @ 7/1 as this was going well until falling during the 2nd circuit and with a clear round will surely make a race of it , not a sure fire winner by a long way but is certainly in with a decent looking shout based on all known form.
Wonderful Charm @ 5.3 is a solid looking Lay as this is a real doubtful and weak stayer and i will happily be taking this on.

>>>>>>RESULT = HOLLYWELL 1st ( Don Cossack 2nd @ 5.50 )

RACE 3 >>>.....We now move onto the MELLING CHASE and this looks an intriguing race as many come into this on the back of top level form, broken promises and reputations that need to be restored.
The Fav for todays race is RAJDHANI EXPRESS @ 5.8 and is a fav in name only as the book needs to be balanced and this has rather unluckily been given the Favs slot...although its not without a chance i certainly wouldnt be backing it at such cramped and uninspiring odds, BALLYNAGOUR is an interesting runner for me having scooped my award for race of the festival as this absolutely hacked up and looked a cut above the opposition but this has been better when racing after a break and it was also patently laid out for that Cheltenham race and i think as good as it was this is a tough ask.....but i wouldnt be shocked to see it win.....I think the " Class " in this race is supplied by WISHFUL THINKING and if this is on a going day then will surely be too good imo however a lot has to be taken on trust as you just never know what type of mood this will be in or what type of race it will decide it wants to race......and finally as you may know im a fan of MODULE and although it may just lack the class to be truly competitive at Grade 1 level i think it has easily enough to get involved in this.>>>My Bet BALLYNAGOUR ran a cracker to come 3rd @ 6.0 ( hit 1.42 in the run ) , willie Mullins wins it with Boston Bob.

RACE 4 >>>>
Now we have a tough looking TOPHAM CHASE over the national course and this looks very competitive and 12/1 the field shows you how tough this is...
The horse i like in this will have to carry less ( or equal )  than 10-12 ( stat anomaly ) so the first will be CEDRE BLEU who just scrapes in on 10-12 and at very big odds a cheeky EW on BENNYS MIST as this is a race not to get too financially involved in. - Result - BoooooM as BENNY'S MIST runs a great race for 2nd @ 75/1 ( 12.50 )

RACE 5 >>>>>
This years renewal of the SEFTON looks a crazy affair as any one of around 10 look to have the ability to win....and im going to row in with a very tentative selection on CAPOTE.......and hope AP can provide the requisite magic although it will have to again show further improvement.

Thats me done for today , sun , beer and some lazy trading beckons.....CIAO...x

Greetings from Spain >>>

Morning All , as you may have noticed the blogging has been rather quiet for a couple of weeks and this is because i am currently in Spain on more business than pleasure although its always a pleasure doing any work when its a nice 80 degrees ;-).

So here i am burning thru the country's WI-FI in order to fully examine the start of a great looking Aintree festival and it looks outstanding and deserves to be supported no less than the Cheltenham festival , all the big guns are out and some well hyped names on show.

This will be the final NH post for the season as the flat will be taking over in earnest from the weekend.

So what have we got to look forward to today.....THE NEW ONE for starters who is accompanied by Silvi Conti , Dynaste and a good few others...so without further ado lets crack on......

RACE 1 > 

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)2m 1f

• (4yo, 2m 1f, Class 1, 15 runners)
• Winner £56,270 2nd £21,200 3rd £10,610 4th £5,300 5th £2,660 6th£1,330 7th £660 8th £340
• Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
• Surface: Turf

.A wide open affair to start and not because of any one reason , the field is tight , big in size  with most having shown similar levels of ability it is hard to really get an angle thru this and it looks a typical 10/1 the field race.

The two leading protagonists do look the most likely winners based on current form and running ability , ACTIVAL was a good winner lto winning the Adonis and looks a sort on the upgrade and the fact it swerved Cheltenham for this only serves to strengthen its case and will be involved in the finish.

CALIPTO is the other and would arguably have won lto at the Festival had it not lost its stirrups after being hampered 2f out and that left Daryl Jacob unable to ride a finish out but still did surprisingly well and with better luck in running will surely be out for some compensation today and it would be no surprise to see this win.

Statswise its a curious race as favourites when heavily fancied and punted do well with a few recent winners coming in at Evens , 4/6 , 11/8 and 2/1 but when we have a more open race like today you generally find it going to a bigger double priced runner but is there anything out there good enough to reverse any recent form or improve enough.....???...

Well the three i like are CLARCAM who imo would have won the Fred Winter had it not tipped up 2f out when moving into the lead and at 20/1 looks a nice bet , Hawk High who actually won the Fred Winter looks a progressive battling sort and is well worth some coin at around 14/1 and finally we have Commissioned from the bully boy stable of Ferguson and this is entitled to run to an improved rating as it is lightly raced and has a lot of scope and i have a sneaky feeling this has been kept cool for a race like this if not exactly this.

WIN - CALIPTO - 3rd @ 5.22

EW - CLARCAM - 2nd @ 21.0

LONG - COMMISSIONED - 4th @ 21.77

____________________________________________________

and has the day has developed into a scorcher i am going to keep the remainder short n sweet...sorry guys......

Betfred Bowl > This is for me a straight fight between DYNASTE and SILVI' CONTI with the rest looking outclassed or passed it and i see no way FL can reverse any recent form lines and the current prices allow for a nice Dutch Win bet.-SILVI CONTI > 1st @ 3.25 & DYNASTE 2nd @ 2.68

In the AINTREE HURDLE....We see the return of THE NEW ONE and at 1.38 is priced correctly as its my true belief that this is a true great in the making plus it thrashed Rock on Ruby earlier in the season by 10L without coming off the bridle and i see no way this smooth traveling , solid jumping star will get beat.....> 1st @ 1.48 ( only just got up to beat Rock on Ruby & Diakali )

In the Pinsent Manifesto Chase ( 1650 ) i think we should stick with Oscar Whiskey in what is arguably the days toughest race with both Western Warhorse and Dodging Bullets providing a stern test.

and thats it for today ....maybe if i get more time tmrw i will do more ...ttfn ya miserable fuckers.