Been a few days or so since any real update and this has been solely down to having no time to really put down all my thoughts in fact ive bet hardly anything just lately as my time has been spent elsewhere and ive been making a living " old skool " by actually working for a living and pulling a wage from it...i know SHOCK HORROR lol...ive been getting paid to do work watching and race reviewing and its been fun and ive been booked for another two weeks of horse related work so time will again be at a premium so i have decided to take a very early look thru the Tuesday card at Goodwood as this is one of my Favourite weeks of the year GLORIOUS GOODWOOD and im hoping to see some classic races again this year.
We start off with a Traditionally tough looking Hcap and all thoughts and considerations will be made and excepted as though the ground is riding Good only any deviations will mean you will have to except the outcome or re-assess.
As they are in such fine form still and they also won this race last year i am going to advise a 3 way ( any form ) dutch on the three MJ runners , we have them in form with CD history and will all be ready to rumble and as all three are in very healthy double figures this looks a decent bet albeit for fun only but a bigger bet wouldnt be considered a bad thing.
Sniper - No Bet
Longbow - 3 way dutch - 3rd @ 14/1
FreeFORM - Master the World -
Race 2 looks a beauty and has been until last year a R Hannon benefit race as he has saddled a 2nd and 4 Winners in the last 5 years so its a race he obviously has well within his scope however Tupi which was 2nd last year wasnt all that and not at the same level as the winner he saddled from the previous 2 years which were Olympic Glory and Toormore and this years Paliwan is another that just doesnt look strong enough but is entitled to improve but not more than any of the others.
4th in the Chesham then won n Egg n Spoon maiden before getting easily brushed aside in a higher grade event over 7f and this form is imo simply not good enough and already is trailing a few others by almost 20lbs....so i simply do not see how this can win or even get close!!.
Birchwood and Air Vice Marshall will probably ( and rightly so ) dominate the betting but i think both these rival renewing runners can be opposed and with the market in our favour i think we can tank a dutch against them.
The two obvious improvers i like are GALILEO GOLD and WELFORD both of whom have a bit to find but both look strong with a stayers pedigree and i think if we do get some rain then it will improve their chances considerably and i think we should sneak double figures on both again making this a competitive bet.
Sniper - Twin Sails -
Longbow - GALILEO GOLD and WELFORD - 1st @ 6.2
FreeFORM - Birchwood -
Race 3 is the £200k Lennox Stakes and looks a doozy for so many reasons...Horses looking to reestablish reps , trying new trips and so many coming into this with tons of past form...this looks a cracker!!.
TUPI will come into the reckoning as he come 2nd in the Vintage Stakes on this card last year and this looks the right level for him to be competitive and has to be included along with outright form choice which is DUTCH CONNECTION who will win if he can replicate the brilliant lto run when just touched off by the brilliant Territories over in France and any further improvement sees him clear as i have down at around the 119-121 mark so i think that he is clear on my ratings and is still improving plus its should be a very competitive price.
Finally we should also consider LIMATO who has shown to be a group class sprinter but staying on so strongly to suggest the step up in trip should be no problem but that is not always a given but should he stay and stay well then he could be a very exciting recruit to a specialist trip.
Toormore is frustrating and untrustworthy but not without some class and ability , Glory Awaits always promises more than it delivers , Safety Check has to prove its as good on the turf as it is on the AW and the remainder are as good as their marks and will just run honest races so i think one of the surprise packages will indeed take this but which one?....My heart tells me Limato but my head says Dutch Connection so whatever the outcome this should be a fascinating race.
Sniper - Dutch Connection -
Longbow - Dutch Connection / Tupi - 2nd @ 3.7
FreeFORM - Dutch Connection -
Race 4 is a 1m6f Hcap and its a time to break the bar and chill out as this is a non event for me but i do know that FORGOTTEN VOICE has been training well and is fit as a flea as this has been his flat season target all year and this will get a decent EW lump off me.
Longbow - Forgotten Voice - 2nd @ 29.0
Race 5 is a crazy tough 5f Hcap and its the type of race in which the Dickster should lend me his magic pin because in truth there are a million options in this race.
Sniper - Double Up - 2nd @ 3.6
Longbow - Top Boy / Ridge Ranger - 3rd @ 7.6 / 1st @ 21.80
FreeFORM - Double Up -
Race 5 is a standard Goodwood Maiden and for obvious reason it must be assumed that the Goodwood Racing Club would love to see their Goodwood Zodiac win here and it does arrive with enough form to give it a solid chance.
Sniper - Papa Luigi - 2nd @ 6.44
Longbow - Goodwood Zodiac -
FreeFORM - Sir Roger Moore -
The Finale is a horrible getting out stakes and STRONG STEPS is a speculative punt to round off a tough looking day.
Longbow - Strong Steps - 3rd @ 6.88
Thats it now just another day till we watch Gleneagles win the Sussex Stakes beating Solow ;-).
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