Friday, 10 July 2015

Frilling Friday

Morning World ,
                            And before all the Grammar Geeks jump up im aware of my play on words so dont bother ;)...
               Today we have a racing Tri-fecta with meetings at Ascot , York and Newmarket...wow what a Friday...this is how racing should be..quality racing at the top tracks.........not always great for the punter tho but hopefully we will find one or two bets to keep us ticking over.

I will only be covering the races i like to look at for a bet or the ones in which i feel i have an angle but Sniper may well cover the cards in more stringent detail but i do know hes Playing Golf today so efforts from him may be thin on the ground.

So we start the day looking thru the YORK card and its a maiden to start and Ajaya looks a shoo in for that so we move swiftly on the next which is a Nursery and this im interested in as there is a chasm in the weights and these youngsters often struggle to give huge amounts away and the two i like in this as options are the two Easterby runners who at 14/1 & 16/1 ( 3.7 each a fap ) are getting over a stone in allowances their form is weak but they are open to any amount of improvement and i like the idea of a fap dutch in this smallish field with top three getting a pay day and that is my call.

 Group 3 Sprint is next with 14 runners which makes it ideal punting material although form would indicate this will be a duel Between Wokingham winner Interception and 7f specialist Kyoshi but at 3.85 & 7.0 offer little value even in a fav based dutch so i think it may pay to stick with some York specialists.
AETNA and  SPINATRIX  are two i really like along with Irish Raider NEWSLETTER.
Aetna needs some cut to show her true form and hasnt had it yet but the ground should be nigh on perfect for her today and with some luck in running could have a major say in the outcome , Spinatrix wins regular enough and holds her form well enough to suggest that she is upto winning again and a repeat of the run when winning the Coral Sprint at York last year puts her right in the frame and Newsletter is a career raider who could be a hcap blot and priced at 12/1,13/1 and 14/1 these are well worth an EW dutch or similar.

Big 16 runner Hcap next and its a proper Longbow race.
The first name on my list is EMERALDHZ at around 20/1 , this won over this 1m4f trip lto at Thirsk in a race much weaker than this but it did piss up so theres your balance and i think this filly is well upto racing and winning in this better grade race and the odds are i think very fair.
MARMION is sure to run a huge race after running Apertarix so close over CD recently and as a leading player i find the 8/1 a rather decent price.
In truth the harder i look through this race the harder i find it to pull myself away from the first 5 in the betting as they all arrive with rock solid form and those im wanting to back seem to have a mountain to climb but CHANCERY at 33/1 could also sneak a place if things fall right and does have the benefit of being stabled at the " touch shit turn into Gold " O'Meara yard so who knows..anything could happen.

Another Hcap next and another decent size with 16 runners but this is a 5f sprint and it could be carnage..which is generally good for me ;).
Bogart is the stand out class in this race but is less predictable than a mad woman on her menstrual cycle so like the woman is best left alone.I would say you want to be looking at something thats not done much for a while and could pop up at a big price but if i did that we would be down to around 4 runners!!..;(.
SILVANUS could surprise having run a decent enough race lto and dont worry about the form turn around ( s ) as is the case with sprinters they take it in turns to beat each other and the 33/1 is big enough to throw a few pennies at.
ADDICTIVE DREAM is also 33/1 and is the one that finished ahead of Silvanus lto in that Conditions event and could easily enough place along with NOBLE STORM but the truth here is that " IF " Bogart can run to anywhere near what he is currently able then this is as good as over as i have him a mile clear in what will be his easiest task to date for quite some time and if he is ever to regain the winning thread then surely it has to be today and i suppose at 7/1 its worth having as some cover in what looks a treacherous race for punters.

18 Runner Hcap is the days next play and it doesnt get any easier but BAREESH looks a blot to me rated 80 after winning his maiden effortlessly and is getting upto a stone in weight from his peers including those rated higher and lower than itself and could have been put in here very lightly and the 9/1 looks a sporting bet although i would have preferred 14 or 16/1 in truth to make it proper palatable.
Elsewhere i think CORREGIO will run another solid race along with CACTUS VALLEY who at 11/1 and 40/1 offer sporting EW options.

In the finale we have two horses who ran no sort of race at all and had proper excuse to explain them so i think at the current odds they are worth an EW dutch to prove they were fluke bad runs and much better is to be seen , the horses in question are SIR DOMINO & SUPER KID  at between 16/1 - 20/1 this is a cracking fap dutch.

Summary : In truth this is a super tough day with no stand out bets as such although the finale really interests me as does Emeraldhz & Spinatrix but its not a day to get too involved in , i will combine them all in some EW accas and hope i hit a few places but im keeping the stakes small and liability limited and i may Lay Mustadam @ 5.0 to offset some or all of todays costs.

Over to NEWMARKET now in the hope that something will shine like a beacon through the fog off handicapping war.....
Forget the first race here and move straight to RACE 2 which is a very decent looking Nursery and i think JUST EMMA is worth a look at 25/1 having run well enough in both the Woodcote and the Queen Mary this big ease in grade will give her time to settle and she could easily out run her price.
  Update : No further updates for today , no time and i must leave the office..ttfn , have a great day.

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