Saturday, 11 July 2015

Sizzling Satdee

Morning All ,
                     And its a Blockbuster Sat we have with 4 prime plus meetings at Chester , Newmarket, York and Ascot and a lot to work through.
Yesterday went as expected with a decent win on Hcap blot Bareesh @ 5/1 and a cover all bets Lay on Mustadeem @ 11/4f so not much to grumble about but i would like to hit a couple of decent winners today as Sniper has taken the weekend off as he does but he is preparing a card only i dont for where so lets take a look and see what crops up.

York has a run on some bonkers looking Hcaps which you may think is ideal for senor Longbow but it in fact makes it even harder as my ideal field size is 10-14 and in truth i do a lot better profit wise on the midweek gaff tracks than these fancy meetings but thats where Sniper comes in as he is the opposite.
So i will take a look through York to start the day off and work my way thru with a summary at the end of it all.
YORK
RACE 1:
Another insane Hcap but one in which i fancy a few so i will nominate 3 to follow ,
1. YOUR FIRED @ 14/1 - 3rd
Consistent performer at this level and beyond and easily capable of taking a hand if hes in the mood.
2. MUSADDAS @ 7.60 - 2nd
Obvious selection to many as the run to beat Jacob Black looks rock solid now and has an obvious leading chance more so given how poor or inconsistent most of these are and this still has a few pound more in the locker.
3. DREAM SPIRIT @ 20/1
This is from the Haggas yard that likes a winner or two here at York and this very lightly raced type could easily have been primed for this having shown some smart form last term and then to make a belated seasonal reappearance in the Victoria Cup where he did nothing racing on the wrong side this could and should be cherry ripe now and a much better run should be expected.
RESULT / NOTES : A good race for us with our EW Dutch hitting both 2nd & 3rd so a nice profit to start.

RACE 2:
ASTRONEUS will take some beating in this if staying the trip and there is every reason to think he will as he has been very strong in his races over 1m4f and running on/staying on at the end and is one that is on the upgrade and with form in the book equal to anything else on offer this will have a big say in the outcome, leading player and the one to beat.
Of the bigger priced runners i think WAKEA could run well and is worth including as an EW bet @ 20/1 with more to come this could provide a shock.
RESULT / NOTES : Astroneus 1st@ 5.90 ;-)


RACE 3:
Listed Sprint is next and i have eyes for three runners only ,
1. TAKE COVER @ 6.20
Led for a long way lto in a really tough Kings Stand and if this gets away smartly and is allowed to bowl along he could have them all strung out with 1f to go but will be making a go of it regardless as he is also last years winner of this race so has to be respected on that form alone.
2. COTAI GLORY @ 9/1 - 3rd
This Charlie Hills inmate could be very special , forget the run in the Abbaye as that was a non event for a host of reasons and focus on A) The Flying Childers when with the race at his mercy and 2L clear he jinked sharply causing the rider to unseat but for my records im having that as a win as he wasnt for passing that day and B) The Molcomb Stakes where he made all and crushed them including 3 runners rated around 105 which is strong enough form on its own to merit consideration then factor in a few pounds of strengthening and build over the winter and a few pounds of obvious improvement to come and this is already a 112 rated runner in waiting and is imo a group horse proper.
3. KINGSGATE NATIVE @ 16/1
This is the old boy in the yard but is still showing flashes of class and brilliance and although not a proper group horse these days is certainly upto taking down an event like this as this is much weaker than what he has been facing and has to included as any form roll backs and he is well clear.
RESULT / NOTES : COTAI GLORY was a good 3rd for us @ 12.50

RACE 4 :
The JOHN SMITHS CUP is a historic race which is also a nightmare for punters and i will again just have a look at three against the field in which i feel could run well.
1. FIRE FIGHTING @ 14/1
From the MJ yard this stern type has enough ability to win but it typical of the MJ outfit as he rarely puts two same runs in together but as he hasnt won for a couple today could be the day.
2. HOMAGE @ 33/1 - Non Runner
Another from the Haggas yard and another that comes here on the back of a light campaign and could be ready to empty those bookie satchels.
3. VOICE OF A LEADER @ 14/1
Another lightly raced type from a yard that could do with another Rodrigo de Triano to get them back in the spot light and who knows..this could be a spring board?.

RACE 5:
Nothing for me here as its a maiden...

RACE 6:
This is more me with another meaty Hcap and i think LONGBOW should be backing LONGSHADOW @ 16/1 ;-) , but i also like the look of ARDLUI @ 16/1 who is proven over the trip which is very important here and is in good form with a solid 3rd lto over this 2m and dont be surprised if Grumeti @ 33/1 runs a big race.

And thats it for York with some excellent racing ( for the bookies ) and a few decent ( ish ) bets to be had im sure we can turn a profit there somehow;).

So we move onto Chester or the home of the Good Doctor as we say and the first race is swerved along with the second and i should swerve the 3rd however im going to have a nibble on LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 16/1 or bigger as this was a classy sort last term that seems to be struggling for confidence , been pulling far too hard in its races and been way to keen however if he can settle and find his groove he will beat this lot fairly easy but based on what we have seen so far this year thats a leap of faith Grand Canyon styleeee but at 16/1 - 20/1 im prepared to give him a chance.
And the remainder of this card holds nothing for me so that is a swift appraisal for Chester with the best bet being just follow the Doctor as he always gets a winner or two here.

Next up its NEWMARKET and it looks a damn good day there ,

RACE 1 : 
Cracking Handicap to start the day and a 2 way dutch is my bet here ,
1. QUICK DEFENCE @ 8/1
&
2. WESTERN RESERVE @ 9/1 - 1st
Both are Khalid runners but for different yards and both are entitled to run here although neither have outstanding claims but i think this is a rock solid EW dutch.

RESULT/NOTES : Another excellent start to the day with a very tasty winner for a decent profit and an easy day.

RACE 2:
This is not normally a race i would get involved in however Hannon/Hughes have won this very prestigious race 3 times in the last five years with the likes of King Torus , Etsikdhar and OLYMPIC GLORY so this is obviously a race they keep something special back for and you can gtee this will be going all out its also rather surprising that this is currently the 12/1 rank outsider even tho its already got good looking winning form when hosing up in its maiden at Epsom..i simply have to be involved at the price, TONY CURTIS.
RESULT/NOTES : A solid enough run to get 3rd at an amazing price..5.2 the FAP is insane on an SP of 12/1...;)

RACE 3:
The Bunbury Cup with 18 runners all charging down this can get messy.
FIELD OF DREAM is a very interesting ride for Joseph O'Brien as this very very inconsistent type who has Won This race before in 2013 with victory and a placed run in two Royal Hunt Cups has all the ability required to race at the top table but so so often fails to turn up and delivers little but it must be said that on his day he can win and he loves these big field events and at 66/1 is well worth a few EW pennies from anyones pocket.
I also feel Jallota can run a big race today with Crowley doing the steering there is no one better in these monster fields as he is a master navigator.
ONE WORD MORE for the Easterby team could also outrun his price in what looks a very tough race.
RESULT/NOTES : ONE WORD MORE was an excellent 2nd for us @ 20.50


RACE 4: 
DARLEY JULY CUP now and its one the years leading sprint races and a decent field of 14 have arrived to fight for the £500,000 prize money on offer.
This is not a Longbow selection race so im writing down the selections from Sniper who states he simply cannot get away from the top three in the betting.
1. BRAZEN BEAU @ 3.60
Australian speedball that was very unlucky lto and looks another southern hemisphere class act and will take all the beating in this.
2. MUTHMIR @ 13.00
Looked one of Europes leading candidates for sprinter of the year at one stage but always has a story to tell and he needs now to finally convince and stamp his authority on this field to be taken seriously only just touched off lto this extra 1f will suit and will be a major player as a group horse racing against mainly handicappers.
3. MUHAARAR @ 3.75 - 1st
Won the Greenham then trounced a super strong field in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot beating the excellent and very speedy Limato by almost 4L in what was one of the years best sprinting performances seen , loves the trip, loves the ground and holds a host of these on current and past form and for me is the one to be on.
Should be a great race but i cant see past the front three as they look a class apart.
RESULT/NOTES : Muhaarar Wins to make it a cracking day ;)

RACE 5:
BALLYDOYLE should win this maiden with just an ounce of improvement ~ 1st @ 4/7

RACE 6:
&
RACE 7: Offer me nothing so both are avoided.

Another quality card tho with some exceptional racing to enjoy although really decent bets are hard to find with most speculative at best but we do have one or two to keep us ticking over.

Finally we go to ASCOT for what also looks a very tough card and tricky for punters..no dutches for me here just one Longbow selection per race..every race..lets get the rags home!!..

RACE 1 : MEADWAY @ 20/1 - Unplaced
RACE 2 : CABLE BAY @ 6/1 - Unplaced
RACE 3 : RAYS THE BAR @ 50/1 - 1st @ 48.0
RACE 4 : CAPTAIN BOB @ 14/1 - 2nd @ 7.2
RACE 5 : SUPREME OCCASION @ 16/1 - 2nd @ 14.60
RACE 6 : OCEANE @ 10/1 - Unplaced

So thats it a wrap up of todays main action and events ,
BEST BETS : All of them if they win ;-) , but none are absolute stand outs although a few are decent i will be pick n mixing them up in EW accaa's in the hope i can pick 4 or 5 placed and hit something nice...but then on a day like today drawing a big fat blank wouldn't have me concerned.

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