Well i had another interesting day yesterday hitting yet another decent priced winner but alas nothing really to back it up but we still managed to make a decent profit from the day and Snipers PPL and Stat Lay efforts are ticking over and the one a day hit another NAP with the Hat Trick beckoning today and its a good day to be a punter as we find ourselves blessed with some great action today from Donny and Newmarket and Epsom in the evening so i think we will hopefully see a glut of decent bets out today ( all will be posted on Punters Pal ) .
Where do we start today?? , well for me ( Longbow ) its a trip to Carlisle first to see what Hcap blots they may have and its interesting that there has been no early money for LE DELUGE in the 1645 as these Arnold runners often attract suspicious support but today nothing so maybe it wont be trying again but at 33/1 its the type of price they like to strike with so keep an eye on that one along with RASSELAS who is also 33/1 and is another that is impossible to guess but either could run into a place or better on any given day and this race is the type thats ripe for a back door plot.
In the finale MOON ARC is interesting upped in trip having not shown any staying qualities of late but at around 25/1 could be worth a try but in truth thats about it with not much to really go on at Carlisle one can only hoope the two main meetings will provide some decent value bets for me to put in my quiver.
NEWMARKET
The day starts off with the Bahrain Trophy and its a decent small field affair but offers nothing for me however we then move onto the July Stakes which is a sprint and is a decent sized punting race and for me its a 3 way Dutch with solid reasoning.
AREEN for me has the best form on offer , looks a likely type and was running strong at the end of its last race and i think this has a lot more to offer and at 5.6 is worthy of inclusion along with two relative outsiders im really keen and these will get the bigger portion of my bets and they are EXPERTO CREED who cost a staggering £290,000 as a yearling and was well backed fto and then won over CD in an average time but won very easily and i think there could be an absolute ton of improvement to come from this and although this isnt an exact science i would be very surprised if this cant manage a run in the low to mid 90's and the 10/1 is a solid price,lastly we will have SHALAA the supposed 2nd string for Hannon but one that has a better speed profile and stock figures than the Dettori ridden 3rd Fav and the 16/1 looks a belting price given the context of this race and this already has the numbers to suggest a place is well on the cards but this is a very strong looking race and nothing can be taken as a given. - BooooM as SHALAA is 1st @ 20/1 ;-)
The Prince of Wales is next and this is a Sniper type race but i do like the look of the Cumani runner Second Step who is well worth racing in this grade but i dont know if the 5.70 is a good price in this so i will defer to Sniper to see what he makes of it.
**Second Step was 2nd @ 6.20
The next race is the Unibet Hacap and with 11 runners and a 101% book this is a perfect race for me so lets hope we have something strong here.
Well its not the strongest selection ive ever had but GIBEON @ 33/1 is well worth a go.Its very unusual to see Hannon n Hughes partner one of the rank outsiders but with others looking far more compliant its easy to reason with however this son of Cape Cross has some decent enough form to suggest he has the ability to win one of these if he can get his act together and i think Hughesy should again try to make all as its my opinion that a repeat of the run when 2nd in the Investec Hcap at Epsom would be good enough for a place at the minimum and a win could easily be on the cards as he was beaten in the end that day by a very smart and promising type in Stravagante ( rated 100 ) where he led a steady pace and quickened it up with 2f to go to get outstayed as they come inside the 1f pole but had the remainder strung out and that is some very smart form imo and like i say a repeat of that run would make things very interesting. - 2nd @ 25.60
Its a maiden next and its an auto swerve for me however i will share some info i have been given and the word is TURAATHY is very smart indeed and has been burning the gallops up and at 11/1 makes for a very interesting bet against some with decent form. - *Ran on for mid div but didnt look a speed ball.
Another maiden and no info so we will move along quickly....To the HRAC Stakes and this is another that holds nothing is another swiftly left alone and that brings us to the finale which is a 8 runner Hcap and this is one we can have a look at.
Inexile " back in the day " had the ability to murder these but its win rate of late is in lower class and is poor but it still retains some ability so it wouldnt be daft to think this can win however the 20/1 i think given the race context is a poor price as i would want 33/1 to even warm my hands up and as any of the front 3 could win they are also openly vulnerable so a dutch on the field would be my bet.
So thats Newmarket complete and not a great deal to aim at there in truth with the better bets being speculative at best and this could be a day when Sniper takes center stage as he has a much better read on the group and better class races.
So...
DONCASTER
awaits.......
And we start the day here with a perfect punting race, 13 runners and a Hcap which is perfect for me and although its 130/1 Fine n Dandy could be interesting as it continues to tumble down the weights but more realistically Woody Bay or Jacobs Pillar look to be the best bets although pricewise there isnt anything in this that can be called great value and im not that tempted to call anything here.
The next three races are all swerved for various reason which brings us to the 1635 which is a tight small field Hcap and i cant get away from FIESOLE which at 3.8 is not a typical Longbow big priced selection but is such a typical Hcap debutante for Cumani its impossible to ignore this strapping son of Montjeu will be winning soon and today could be the start of a very rewarding career. - 3rd @ 7/2
In the next we have another relative shorty in BALLIOL who has any amount of scope and has imo been let in here very lightly and i think some EW singles n Double with Fiesole is a very good looking bet or even just a fap double as i think both have outstanding fap claims ( Shackled n Drawn- 2nd @ 9/1 also looks very interesting at 12/1 which is a typical Longbow belting bet ).- 3rd @ 6/1
And HOT SPICE will probably win the finale so i may stick that in with the above two for a treble.
- 1st @ 2.59
So not quite as much as i hoped for but we do have one or two bets that look very interesting and it should still be a fun day.....right im off to see what Sniper fancies now..TTFN x.
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