Tuesday, 8 January 2013

For Michael009 ;)

Today i shall as requested do a review for 3 races all at Wolverhampton and they are the 14:50, 16:25 & 17:25......Lets have a peek.....

14:50 Wolverhampton - What a poor race when Dhhamaan is the most consistent yet is utterly unreliable himself , the race it won lto was a bottom of the barrel race beating a 47 rated nag by 2L making all...that pretty much tells its own story , there are no other distance winners in this field and only won that has any relevant history at the track so opposition is again looking dire.On my speed ratings Coastal Passage even if running to its best probably has the best part of 3L to find along with the Veteran Kieltys Folly ( 2L to find ) , Son of May is slow and just looks like its not enjoying its racing , and then there is Essell who is interesting dropping back in trip again after running reasonably well in the main lto and could again sneak a place.
The remainder are just dire and i cannot see how they could possibly improve enough to trouble the judge.
I Cannot see past the 1.87 Fav DHHAMAAN but i would not back him either in such a low grade and unappealing race , the bet here for me is to Place Lay dutch both Kieltys Folly & Essell @ 1.67 & 1.79 as i feel Dhhamaan will def be placed leaving 4 horses to fight for 2 spots..this is where you can make your money.
EW SELECTION : Coastal Passage

1st - Coastal Passage @ 4.55
2nd - Kieltys Folly
3rd - Flumps

Bet Advice was Good.
16:25 - A maiden for the older types , these are possibly the hardest of all races to decipher as they are 4+ and still lightly raced and/or a maiden usually for a good reason , injury , lack of apparent ability , ?? ,...so you have to factor many things in when making a decision and you have to find a path to follow with these races.
He's No Angel is easily the most interesting runner owned by F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone and cost £200,000 as a yearling and is wonderfully bred and is not actually a true 4yr old till the 26th of Jan....so technically he is for a couple of weeks still a 3 yr old ;-) and on that basis has to go on the short list.
Cape Crossing and Fly Haaf have almost identical ratings and i cant split the pair , both should come on for their respective last runs and both could and should be in the shake up, however both weakened quickly and neither run on so there are very vulnerable.
Harvest Mist and Fountain Girl have no chance so that leaves just Frontier Fighter and this ran well enough fto to suggest he could be winning races but at 1.91....no thanks not for me , it hasnt done anything to suggest its a nailed on fav which the market is saying and its speed rating is only marginally better than the 2nd and 3rd favs so again i will have to look elsewhere for a profit but where?...and tbh its a tough one, i would probably say at a pinch the Place Dutch BACK of Hes No Angel & Cape Crossing as this represents a better return than the place Lay of the top two but you can imagine either scenario happening , at this juncture i would probably wait to get some more market info as at 12.0 Hes No Angel could also be good for a trade ( 8.0 ).
SUMMARY : FRONTIER FIGHTER is bred for the job is from a family i like on the AW , has some fair recent and relevant form  is from a team i like and ridden by one of my stable jockeys so does in theory just about tick all my boxes and is in all honesty the most likely winner but is too short @ 1.91 on evidence and opposition for me to back.

1st = Frontier Fighter @ 1.94
2nd = Cape Crossing @ 17.70

Bet Advice was good as again we hit with the EW selection , The Place Dutch and the trade as Hes No Angel went off at 6.0...Triple Whammy ;-)
17:25 -A tricky Hcap for the finale but one that carries a red hot form favourite in Rosies Lady after winning twice here in the last 7 days over both CD and 1m4f but is now racing with over a stone more on her back and even with harts allowance is still quite high , but is improving has won well and will bang there again if taking part ( ran just yesterday ) however at 2.06 there is not a cat in hells chance i would back it, Even Money in a 13 runner hcap with at least 5 solid alternatives!..c'mon there is better value had here....actually now i have further developed my view on this race and have dug a bit deeper ( big gap between me writing which you can see ) i am struggling to find alternatives bar Kyllachykov which based on last winning CD performances is only a short head behind the fav  and is in form so the bet choice is a straight fight, Fav to WIN at 2.06 or Kyllachykov to PLACE at 2.08 and for me the place bet wins.
SUMMARY : Again and both disappointingly and rather frustratingly the FAV ROSIES LADY looks to be the one to be on but again it wont be attracting any money from me with only one other runner that looks a serious threat its hard to make a case for laying it either so i will be looking elsewhere for profits again...
WIN SELECTION : ROSIES LADY *17:24 hit a high pre race of 2.64 <<
EW SELECTION : KYLLACHYKOV *17:23 and this has been backed into 3.95 from 7.8 >>

1st = KYLLACHYKOV @ 4.00
Rosies Lady was Unplaced*

Booom 3/3 and the " FUN " EW Trixie i placed Returned a Profit of £192.27..Happy Days....didnt expect that ;-)...Bet Advice was again Good, Hope you made a few quid Michael!!.

So there we have it, 3 races and 3 favourites selected, rather predictable and not very inspiring i must admit but i can only work with the material at hand , the bet for these may well be a Treble on the three Favs?...looks a good bet, certainly solid , you can argue a case for laying all three using the martingale system and stopping when in profit ? or an EW Trixie / Round Robin and " hope " for some luck...tough races and not ones for me to get involved in , backing short priced favs that have either to prove their worth or have race conditions against them is not my scene regardless , for me to lump on a jolly it has to have EVERYTHING in its favour....whatever your play Michael, good luck..and i wish you well ;-)


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