Friday, 11 January 2013

Friday Post for Saturday reading...

Evening All , yup its another quiet night in race reviewing n being all glamorous lol this trading malarkey is quite time demanding and lonely at times , i quite often miss the craic n banter with work colleagues and catching up on gossip , i find the life of a full time trader / gambler et al quietly depressing at times, yeah the hours are good and the pay is ok and the whole work life balance thing is in check...or is it? , other than a few evenings out over xmas and the very odd day out to shop i have pretty much spent the last 4 months sat in front of the pc , watching races , looking up data and stats , re examining and all of which takes hours and hours , it can take upto 1 hour just to review one race in for me to do a few i need to be at it all the time and all the while the days and weeks are passing me by and i start to think whats it all for....??...well i do have plans , and they are being processed but firstly i think i need to start thinking about going away for a week or two , i need some sun but in the Interim to help my mind relax i have just booked my 10 day golfing trip with the lads for the 18th above ^^...currently 14 of us going so should be good fun ;-)...its good to have something to look forward to.
Yesterday...well Yesterday...where to start , well the stat Lays were doing fine until the last race jolly flip flopped, drifted like the proverbial barge out to 5.0 then won quite cosily....but the good things ( certs ) produced 5 winners from 7 with the only two losers being my nap & nb haha..sods law lol...but nice to see me ol mucker Hendo firing in a few winners although they were well placed in very average races , PTS fired off a nice steady profit of £96 ( after we agreed to cap at £100 <> and aim for steady rather than amazing and the trades were all good although one of the results reduced the margins as we took the smaller profit instead of double dobbing it thru...
Onto Saturday and we have a very busy looking day indeed with meetings at Wetherby , Kempton ( NH  ) , Warwick and Lingfield ( AW ) and i think the emphasis should be on Kempton as it looks a rather tricky card...
So at Kempton we have 7 races to look goes......

A small field but reasonably competitive with 3 solid looking rivals and one very interesting newcomer in Deia Sunrise a horse formerly with Gosden and rated mid 90's with some decent form on soft going over 10f  and being from Clodovil you would expect him to turn into a very smart NH type and should stay 2m4f at least.
L'Unique is a good looker and thrashed Cockney Sparrow lto however that form has taken a slight knock as the sparrow didnt quite take off  and has been well beaten since ( but tbf i cannot believe that it was its true running ) and this remain a good prospect along with IDK horse Vibrato Viltat which was beat lto over 1m5f and that trip is no where near far enough as this is bred for 3m and it took almost 1m just for this beast to get warmed up and i would expect a much improved performance here.
And then we have the Hendo runner...or rather we dont as its just pinged up as a Non Runner....thats a shame as i was looking forward to seeing this run after the good the race is now in reality a match unless the Sunrise can transfer its flat form into 130 rated hurdles form on its debut which i doubt..

SUMMARY : L'UNIQUE looks a good rock solid bet in this , gteed to stay , likes the ground , has shown ability at jumping so ticks the required boxes for a good bet but not a max i will be having a double saver with Vibrato in this and Kie in the next.

RESULT :  1st @ 1.92 ;-)))
RACE 2 :
Now we have a 3 runner Novice chase , 1 is a total novice, the second is a winning novice and the 3rd is a dog....Tetlami has the look of a horse that could be going places but looks can be deceiving and this Novice may not be as good as people think or believe it had some smart bumper form then got trashed in the supreme and trashed in the Scottish Champion hurdle and in both races its jumping was poor at best so for it to come chasing so soon is a surprise tbh and i just cannot back it or advise any one else to , it may win by 20L now and people will go wtf??   if that happens then so be it but for me the only bet in this race is a win bet on KIE although the ground has to be an issue but it has everything else, winning chase form, trip form , stable and jockey both doing well...gotta be the one if your having a go.

SUMMARY : KIE imo is the only real bet in this race however i wont be having a go and instead i will be having some fun with a PLACE LAY on Tetlami at 1.11 , i feel it could fall or give up if it goes thru a few and with such a low liability its worth a " punt "..;-)

RESULT : TETLAMI - 1st @ 1.34 ( Nearly Fell at the 2nd and went quite big in running )
RACE 3 :
A trappy 3m Novice hurdle where a case ( no matter how slim ) can be made for all the 9 runners however i dont feel this is a race that Hold on Julio can win so i will rule him out as i feel hes only in this to get a confidence lift after falling in his last chase and at 3.85 is a stone cold bonkers LAY for starters i have him in at 5.2 so take what you can at sub 4.5....
The two i like in this are KAYSERBERG and BUCKS BOND and i cant split the pair so i will probs dutch them ( 5.3 & 6.8 ) both stay the trip , both have a bit of class and are sure fire improvers and both seem straight forward i feel this is a solid bet.

SUMMARY : As mentioned above i cant split the two i like in Kayserberg or Bucks Bond ,  Cloudy Copper is currently hype over substance and is far too short at 2.92 so the bet looks good and thats my play in this.

RESULT : Both did nothing as Hype Horse Cloudy Copper wins easy...;P
RACE 4 : 
This 2m4f Hcap Chase looks competitive but isnt with so many out of form or running below their marks you can safely put a line thru half of them and it is this race in which i have got my HCE Sat tipping comp runner NICEONEFRANKIE a horse that has had a couple of pipe openers , has good distance form and is usually uber reliable and this is one that i feel i will get a true run for my money from although Bally Legend and Cruchain both represent big dangers and both could easily get involved in the finish.

SUMMARY : I have NICEONEFRANKIE as my HCE selection this week but it wont have it all its own way and will have to battle for the win with Cruchain , Bally Legend and Wessex King in the fight this should be a good race to watch.

RESULT : 2nd @ 6.01 ( Bally Legend 1st )
RACE 5 :
Now we have easily the best race of the day anywhere..the LANZAROTE a 2m5f Listed Hcap Hurdle with 18 runners and a field packed full of class past and present.
Do i give one final chance to Captain Sunshine??....was told it would win 1st time out and failed, then got on 2nd time and again it disappointed....shall i or sharnt i....will the fact its now carrying 14lbs less be the primer it needs to kick start its season , yes its well hcapped but i have been so let down by this i am going to rather frustratingly swerve it ( watch it hose up now ) ....
there are 5 i want to focus on , Bucks Magic , Black Thunder , Loose Chips and the Hendo pair of Bears Affair and Oscara Dara.

SUMMARY : Very tough race to call but its BEARS AFFAIR for me a very smart horse in tip top shape that won a good race lto with the same claimer riding a previous CD winner with only a small number of miles on the clock , likes the ground can race on or off the pace is a fluent jumper and has all the T shirts..this is the one the others have to beat and ive just had a good go at 7.0 as i think this is a very fair price.

RESULT : Oscara Dara 1st @ 6.80 ( Bears Fell when beaten )

RACE 6 :
Now we have a 3m hcap chase and i will start by saying that i have more chance of seeing out this 3m trip than Mush Mir....straight off the list...There are a few familiar faces around  but its the lightly campaigned BAILE ANRAI that gets my vote a decent sort last term that lacked fitness on his return and if in the same mood as last season is easily upto winning this and at 12+ i think is a cracking EW bet.

SUMMARY : BAILE ANRAI is the selection and bet for me in this nothing crazy but enough to keep me buzzed ;-) , it has the past form to suggest it could easily get involved and is well worth chancing i also feel there could be more to come from On Trend..that will be worth looking out for.

RESULT : 4th , ran well but was well beaten at the end...
RACE 7 :
We round the day off with a 2m Hcap Hurdle and the prize money will be going the way of Susan Roy as her FORGOTTEN VOICE has a leading chance here , is well thought off and has shown promise with 2 very decent runs after sluicing up in both his NHF race and then on his hurdles debut this is one seriously classy animal and anything around the current 3.75 mark should be snaffled up....what a superb horse to have in the getting out stakes although it must be pointed out that the ground is a worry and if anything will beat this it will probably be the ground.

SUMMARY : MAX EW for me on Forgotten Voice.

RESULT : 4th....but have no idea and Betfair is still is Crash state....arseholes!!

So thats a brief round up of Kempton , hopefully some profit in there , in the mean time i will look for some stat lays ( not produced until 11am ) and some more certs to back or lay...cya in the morrow all....;-)


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