Friday, 25 January 2013

G'day Cobbers ;-)

As we speak ( or as i type ) i have no idea if the planned meeting for Cheltenham will be going ahead as all i can see at the minute is a snow storm outside my window!!...But lets assume that 375 Miles away in Cheltenham the sun has been shining and the ground and course is raceable ;) , with this in mind in what looks a very tasty card i think we should try n smash a bets in as my warchest is full and i feel a super saturday coming on...
So lets start this off with a card for Cheltenham ....

CHELTENHAM

RACE 1
WIN - IRISH SAINT - 2nd @ 1.94
EW - ROLLING STAR - 1st @ 3.75
LONG - LAST SHADOW -
*This for me is a reasonably straight puzzle to solve as Irish Saint has better French form that the well regarded Hendo inmate , is a proven stayer and a winning stayer , loves the ground and will improve tonnes and could turn out to be very useful indeed where as the Hendo inmate Rolling Star arrives on the back of a 7f race at Deauville and a huge reputation and he doesnt talk his horses up unless they are up to the task but the feedback i have received indicates that it is best watched for now and is under schooled so they have no real idea of what he can fully do...So i think the proven ability of Irish Saint is enough for me and is a confident bet.
Last Shadow is interesting tho and if heavily punted tmrw will make me sit up and take notice as jO'neil wanted this to be his Cheltenham Horse but ran very weakly fto/lto and is best watched as it has it all to prove but i wouldnt in any way be shocked if this actually won, i will be monitoring the markets.

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RACE 2

WIN - JOHNS SPIRIT -
EW - THEATRICAL STAR -
LONG - RAJDHANI EXPRESS -
*Quite a tough race to call as Rajdhani Epress is probably the class in the field and demolished his opponents lto however he will imo have to run to around 148-155 to take this with the 13lb rise received although SWC's allowance does make this a slightly easier task , if he runs to the level shown and anticipated he will win im sure but there are enough ifs to make me look elsewhere and at the prices available i like the look of THEATRICAL STAR for the in form Tizzards but the trip is a slight concern so my money will be going onto JOHNS SPIRIT a Distance winner, likes soft ground and is remarkably consistent having just 13 runs but won or placed 10 times and with the Champion AP riding i think this has an outstanding chance today.

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RACE 3

WIN - NADIYA DE LA VEGA - 3rd @ 11.30
EW - PACHA DU POLDER -
LONG - KATENKO - 1st @ 5.30
*This is an incredibly tough and competitive race and a very hard race to call as an analyst where a case can be justifiably made for half the field..sigh...Bold Sir Brian obv has a very strong looking chance but i feel its overall form is questionable, not without ability ( as it has shown many a time ) but really needs to up his game against a far stronger field than many of his recent victories.
Bless the Wings is also a very smart prospect with any amount of scope but its 4 wins ( inc a CD ) have all been on GD/SOFT and this worries me a bit as it has faltered mainly when run on soft ( and forget if heavy ).
Quantativeeasing has been mainly disappointing this term and is overlooked until it shows a sign or hint of a revival.
Our Mick returns from a lengthy absence , showgazer has shown a lack of stamina and Poquelin has been poor.
So for me this leaves my main principals as NADIYA DE LA VEGA , PACHA DU POLDER & KATENKO and i am having great difficulty in splitting these three so i think its a trip to Netherlands for me...

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RACE 4

WIN - SPRINTER SACRE - 1st @ 1.22 ( very very easy )
EW -
LONG -
*Come the feck on why even bother trying to take this monster on?..it is the Frankel of the NH game and is quite simply outstanding...what a wonderful horse and a true superstar.

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RACE 5

WIN - TIDAL BAY - NON RUNNER -
EW - WEIRD AL -
LONG - MIDNIGHT CHASE -
*A very intriguing race which features the wonderful Hunt Ball racing at what i feel is his optimum in both conditions and grade and has every chance , The long awaited return of Imperial Commander a true hero and a great horse whose most recent victories would include the Betfair Chase and the Gold Cup so obv has more than a chance if returning anywhere near to that but at 12 that is a lot of questions to answer.
Then we have the two ( imo ) main protagonists in Grands Crus & Tidal Bay with the latter being a revelation this term and the former attempting to recapture his form after a dip...all the above have questions to answer in one form or another bar Tidal Bay which would probably be my pick although if Midnight Chase ( 5 course wins ) can shrug off the effects of his last race he certainly is not without a chance ( another ?? )....Tough tough race to call...

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RACE 6

WIN - THE NEW ONE - 2nd @ 1.91
EW - CONEYGREE -
LONG - AT FISHERS CROSS - 1st @ 9.60
*Some class here in this small field and THE NEW ONE is the one they all have to beat but would i back it at odds on?..no chance not against Coneygree and Fishers Cross , this is just one to watch and enjoy.

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RACE 7

WIN - OSCAR WHISKY - 2ND @ 3.07
EW - REVE DE SIVOLA ( EW NAP ) - 1ST @ 3.15
LONG -
*OSCAR WHISKY is 100% class but " Does it Stay " ??? ( the 3m ) in all honesty i have not a clue and neither do the team , they like most of us think ( guessing ) that it will in a true run race but i would no way back it to find out..fecking no way jose!!...For me here i have what i think is " THE BET OF THE DAY " and that is a Place Only on REVE DE SIVOLA who smashed the arse out of the very good Smad Place lto stays this trip really well likes any ground and is bang in form and i have this well clear than most of these and just clear of all bar OW and for me that makes this good jumping , smooth travelling sort a cert for a pplace.

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RACE 8

WIN - BARBATOS -
EW - SADDLERS RISK -
LONG - QUADDICK LAKE - 3rd @ 13.81
*And a tricky Hcap hurdle to finish this long day off and with not a lot to choose between the leading players i feel a safe little dutch is in order...

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Hope this helps you in your quest for winners tmrw everyone...this is a brilliant card and should be enjoyed..

____________________Now for some EW fun Elsewhere.........

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