Friday, 4 January 2013

Saturday Special..

Hola , welkommen and Salut...after yesterdays undeniable success at Wolverhampton ( 11 races bet and made profit on 10 ) i thought instead of focusing on the heady action at Sandown n Chepstow i would instead cast my analytical eye over Lingers ;-)...Remember its not just about the winners , its all about the profit, trade when and where possible , you trade , you win...simples....if you want help or advice with trading then feel to ask....C'mon Plaw ( Average Guy ) ..lets spin that roll ;-)....

LINGERS

RACE 1 :
A very tight claimer to start the day off is not the most conducive way to start a day, any day let alone a busy saturday....but the stats say RESPLENDENT ALPHA ( 7.4 ) is the EW choice for connoisseurs personally im not totally convinced but it does have the form in the book that allows it to be competitive in this company and with the likes of Officer in Command and Castle Myth against its not one to go heavy on...Just remember to trade and hedge its the only way...
RESULT : 2nd @ 9.8 ( hit 1.50 in running ) as it run on late and got caught in traffic, good start and nice profit.

RACE 2:
A quandary of a maiden where Too Difficult looks a sure fire winner and with expected improvement to come ( as they do with all Baldings from 1st to 2nd run ) this will surely be bang there however MJ ( has won this race in 2010 & 2011 ) has a very well bred sort in ARYAL ( 5.0 ) a lovely bay colt from Singspiel that cost £150,000 in the sales ring and is related to some very useful sorts , this could easily be good enough fto but be aware MJ's runners often win on the bridle fto or are unplaced...so if your backing this on its own think about putting in some place lay cover...because with 2 other useful looking newcomers and Gertrude Versed in the line up this could be a tad tasty...
RESULT: 2nd @ 4.76 ( hit 1.05 in running ) made profit on the win but lost on the 2.0 place lay so broke even on the race.

RACE 3:
Here we have a trappy small field sprint where they all have a chance of sorts and none can be confidently ruled out , our man Winston rides Pixilated ( 5.0 ) in this and like i have stated it has every chance as Modern Lady seems slightly outclassed ( if i was being fussy ) , and Laylas Oasis and Golden Flower have little to separate them ( Archie Stevens is a non runner ) and at 5.0 in a race in which it has on paper at least an even money chance of winning ( not correct maths i know but its from a stat point of view , how can it be an even money chance against 3 other equally worthwhile opponents , this is true however from the stat perspective it can beat any of these on its day in a h2h scenario thus its an even money chance to win...science bullshit, dont get tied up with it )....i am quite happy rowing a few bob win on this..
RESULT :Unplaced , very poor showing.

RACE 4:
Too tough a race to call so i wont but if i was having a go in this it would probably be an EW on COLOURBEARER ( 5.1 ).
RESULT :4th @ 5.50 ( hit 3.60 in running )

RACE 5:
Div 2 of the shizz above and again a No Play from me but my spec punt would be on CATALINAS DIAMOND after a good 2nd over CD a few days ago.

RESULT : Unplaced @ 5.15 ( hit 3.0 in running )



RACE 6:
Now this is more like a proper race with some very decent sorts racing for a tasty looking £12k first prize...and WHAILEYY looks a very decent sort in deed , on the upgrade, has won in this grade with ease before with its last 6 runs all being in Group ( Class ) 2's and against some very speedy types , on the whole this field contains some above average sorts but only in this realm we are not talking about runners that will be lining up in the Nunthorpe...except Whaileyy could easily fill the void in between this was only a nk and a sh away from winning a big sprint at Ascot a few months ago so has ability for sure, Botti has his lot in fine fettle although im a tad confused over the jockey booking and selection but hey ho...im all over this although i will be disappointed if i cant get better than 4.2 come race time...i wanna smash this EW not nibble a win...
RESULT : 2nd @ 3.68 ( hit 1.21 in running just failed to peg back the leader running on fiercely at the end ) good profit on the race as i hammered the place and traded the win... 

RACE 7 :
This another reasonable in quality and although we have no stats for this i do like the look of the once rated 102 ( last year was 100+ ) LOWTHER that has now dropped to 78 and absolutely bolted up over CD lto another repeat performance and it wins..no problem...but i want 3.0+ before i get my wallet out...so i will wait until 5 mins before race then decide.
RESULT : 2nd @ 3.05 ( hit 1.30 in running ) and another profit race but just couldnt catch the leader , went a bit wide on the bed and the 2 lengths lost was its downfall.

RACE 8:
And we finish the day off with a ridic hard Hcap which only the Radio Rentals among us will enjoy and participate...Personally i feel SUNSHINE ALWAYS as a EW punt is the way forward but again im not over enamored with the current 6.0 ( hit 7.6 earlier ) so i will bite the bullet and wait as i was looking for nearer 8.0 tbh....
RESULT : 3rd @ 6.17 ( hit 2.0 in running ) and More profit to finish the day....overall i would say today has been rock solid...;-)
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For an AW meeting this is probably as good as it gets, some fair sorts on show and some decent bets to be had....Have a great day all.....Cya on Monday.... ( maybe )...;-)x
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**For Trish , Here are some examples for today , 



As you can see they alter slightly this is due to the strength behind the win selection , if i am strong on the bet i will only go for a break even green which gets a better return at a more attainable point however if the selection is lesser fancied i am happy to take a lower profit on the win part but a bigger profit on the lay part , this is sometimes harder to get but is a more profitable solution in the long term.
If the price allows i will also implement a double dob  which is where the first trade grants a green and the second is a bigger profit but this is not always possible as only certain types of runners attract these options.
When trading i feel it is best to set a Standard required profit out in you mind and for your books, ie: set a goal for making £10 per race , how much are you happy making £50 a day , £100 a day etc..and stick to it , what i will strongly advise against is mixing up trades with bets, you will end up winning small and losing big, if you want to gamble then do just that, if you want to make good steady long term profits trading you must be disciplined enough to do just that , then you can do what i do and that is to build /save up a 2nd bank which is just for gambling and risk taking , you must build this from scratch and you must never use your trading account to fund any other bets , just my thoughts and ideas...feel free to do whatever tho, i will try to set out my idea of the trade prices for future cards and advisories similar to what i was doing on PTS before, so you can set your bet , place your trade and go to work, also if you have any bets you would like me to advise on, just get in touch, hope this has helped a bit x.

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