Tuesday, 4 October 2011

Cold is back...

Yeah the mini heat wave is over for sure , back to shivering and dressing up...roll on april.....!!.
I really do hate the cold and miserable weather we seem to get so much of ;-( .
Yesterday was a good day racing wise although the blog took a back end battering after such a scoopalicious start , but some days thats just the way it goes , what is impossible is to win every race , everyday , thats just a ludicrous thought , however what is possible is to make a constant and consistent profit day in day out , week in and week out , thats the key to all forms of punting , staying ahead ,  unless your a weekend punter larging your bets up with ridic £5 lucky 15's etc in the hope of that one big payday....
Well as we all know the Official Flat season is not far from ending with the nights drawing in , nh kicking in its time we started to concentrate on the AW fixtures , each course has its own personality , it acts seperate from each other and in some cases the surface is different , so the form at southwell may not be relevant exclusively at wolverhampton etc...CD is quite often a critical factor as is the draw and are they front runners....a lot of different factors have to be weighed in , much like turf , and also as with the turf some jockeys do better than some at the differing tracks.
Question for AL, PK , Boom and anyone else that reads and punts , thinking ahead for the next few months is there any specific area you want concentrating on , any meetings? , any bet types ? ....let me help you , ...

For today and along with the theme of the blog i shall be posting up the Southwell card...

SOUTHWELL

Draw Advantage:
5f None, 6f Low best.
Flat and National Hunt. The flat action predominantly takes place on an all-weather Fibresand track that is left-handed, level and about ten furlongs in circumference. There is a straight five furlongs course. Occasionally flat racing takes to the turf track, which runs on the inside of the all-weather circuit, and has a similar layout. National Hunt racing is also held on this grass course, where there is a run-in from the last obstacle of 220 yards.
The Fibresand track was relaid in the summer of 2000 and is now a very consistent racing surface, that tends to ride a little slower and more testing than the other Fibresand courses.

NameWinsRuns%Places%
R Winston6036216.613437
T Eaves4744510.614432.4
S Donohoe3624314.86225.5
P Cosgrave3221914.67232.9
S De Sousa2113615.44230.9
Billy Cray1611014.63128.2



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NameWinsRuns%Places%
M Johnston7428725.814048.8
D Nicholls5226719.510840.5
C E Brittain136320.62336.5
T D Easterby911382320.4
D O'meara63318.21236.4
B J Meehan31717.7741.2
J Ryan1293.526.9
G A Harker070342.9
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So there you have some std stats for trainers and jockeys...
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...


14:20
BACK - MANDERSTON - Unplaced
LAY - ABSOLUTE FUN £250 @ 7.6 - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - VOCIFEROUS - 1st @ 6.0
**What a tough piece of shit this is to start the day , the lay im happy with , however the winner , well thats a puzzle in a puzzle and not even a lucky pin can help here , so based on all my data and all known speed form ratings available to me i have decided to plump for the two " always trying " from the MJ yard with manderston just coming out on top.

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14:50 ( no bet race )

BACK - BY INVITATION - 3rd @ 2.54
LAY - HURRIYA - Unplaced
EW - SCROOBY DOO - 1st @ 5.50
**This is effectively a 3 horse race ( subtle knife will need further on breeding ) , The boys in blue have an excellent record here and Hurriya could easily be good enough to win here however i feel that BY INVITATION has enough form in the book ( and experience ) that on this occasion could show to be slightly better today , was unlucky last time when short for room , found a run and gave up when the moment had passed , scrooby doo should be good enough to earn some place money and thats that.

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15:20

BACK - ASTROLIBRA - Unplaced
LAY - ILLUSTRATION £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - MASTER OF SONG - 1st @ 6.62
**Another pickle to ponder over , astrolibra is no star but can race effectively from anywhere between 1m-2m ( flat and jumps ) and with fitness assured i feel that Buick will try and run the legs of what remains a very poor bunch with only master of song showing any real form that however is mostly over 1m ( where he has weakened significantly in final stages , this is 1m4f ) .

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15:50

BACK - SWEET LAVANDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Lost £250
LAY - DERAASA £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 5.0 = Lost £1000
EW - EYEDORO - 2nd @ 2.91
**I think this is nailed on , already beaten its stablemate comfortably as eyedoro has beaten the other runner , this therefore on all known form is a 2 horse race and there is no known reason why the form should be reversed.
** There ya go..another rick in the ratings.....and another unwanted loss!!...
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16:20

BACK - SUDDENLY SUSAN - 3rd @ 7.8
LAY - GOOD TIMIN £250 @ 4.6 ( KEEP BET ) - unplaced ( bet unmatched )
EW - WINNING DRAW - unplaced
**Rough ol claimer ( usual for these meets ) just gone with the stats/data and the cd form available...no real confidence behind either tbh , suddenly susan @ 5.9 is worth a nibble ew.

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16:50

BACK - ZARIUS - unplaced
LAY - IL BATTISTA £500 @ 4.4 ( with a back trade set , £250 @ 7.2 ) - 1st ( all matched ) = LOST £150
EW - APRIL FOOL - unplaced
**I really like both AF and Zarius here and feel both back here can run big races , i will probs ew dutch both.

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17:20

BACK - EASTERN HILLS - 1ST @ 16.11
LAY - BEECHCROFT BARON - £500 @ 2.4 ( trade set £250 @ 4.2 ) - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - ELUSIVE WARRIOR - 3rd @ 16.68
**I feel Beechcroft baron is far too short here ( 2.4 ) yes it has 2 pieces of decent course form but its overall profile is rather doggish and i would much rather have the field against it , this is one of those lays that you have to max on and just suck it up if it goes wrong, value wise its a gimme...
***Finally something good this afternoon, i thought for a moment we was going down the same road as yesterday with a great start and a horrid finish , after the mid afternoon collapse i had a decent punt on eastern hills and a saver on the 3rd so i have made a nice bit from this race , shame i dint post this on blog as this would have made the blogs figures a lot better, but hey ho...!!
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17:50

BACK - RIFELSSIONE - **£250 - 1st @ 4.14 = WON £780-00
LAY - GALA SPIRIT £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - PORTGWIDDEN BEACH - Unplaced
**Tough un for the getting out stakes , if im down i will level stakes take the lay and back rifelssione as it really shud be too good for these today , sprinters in form are worth following and even more so when they are in races as shite as this.

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P n L = £380-00 Profit
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Analysis : A very tough card , albeit typical for the aw and the kind of cards you should be gearing towards as winter approaches....
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***After a very unusual mid afternoon ( twice now ) collapse i came storming back with two great winners to finish the day with a profit , i would obv much prefer to just sail thru each and every day but sometimes this just isnt possible , but again look at the positives!!...ew bets hit the first three winners with an additional 2 places giving a return in 5/8 races and the speed ratings hitting those last two with one at 16+ also secures another very nice profit!!...shall i facebook that fact im doing well like all the other wankers...nah will i fuck!! , i just my readers are backing the winners and leaving the losers ( or at least making a profit )....days like today can strain the nerves but you just have to keep the faith , keep doing what works and never falter when the bad times arrive, its all about the long term...goodnight folks, cya tmrw....

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