Yeah the mini heat wave is over for sure , back to shivering and dressing up...roll on april.....!!.
I really do hate the cold and miserable weather we seem to get so much of ;-( .
Yesterday was a good day racing wise although the blog took a back end battering after such a scoopalicious start , but some days thats just the way it goes , what is impossible is to win every race , everyday , thats just a ludicrous thought , however what is possible is to make a constant and consistent profit day in day out , week in and week out , thats the key to all forms of punting , staying ahead , unless your a weekend punter larging your bets up with ridic £5 lucky 15's etc in the hope of that one big payday....
Well as we all know the Official Flat season is not far from ending with the nights drawing in , nh kicking in its time we started to concentrate on the AW fixtures , each course has its own personality , it acts seperate from each other and in some cases the surface is different , so the form at southwell may not be relevant exclusively at wolverhampton etc...CD is quite often a critical factor as is the draw and are they front runners....a lot of different factors have to be weighed in , much like turf , and also as with the turf some jockeys do better than some at the differing tracks.
Question for AL, PK , Boom and anyone else that reads and punts , thinking ahead for the next few months is there any specific area you want concentrating on , any meetings? , any bet types ? ....let me help you , ...
For today and along with the theme of the blog i shall be posting up the Southwell card...
SOUTHWELL
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So there you have some std stats for trainers and jockeys...
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...
14:20
BACK - MANDERSTON - Unplaced
LAY - ABSOLUTE FUN £250 @ 7.6 - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - VOCIFEROUS - 1st @ 6.0
**What a tough piece of shit this is to start the day , the lay im happy with , however the winner , well thats a puzzle in a puzzle and not even a lucky pin can help here , so based on all my data and all known speed form ratings available to me i have decided to plump for the two " always trying " from the MJ yard with manderston just coming out on top.
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14:50 ( no bet race )
BACK - BY INVITATION - 3rd @ 2.54
LAY - HURRIYA - Unplaced
EW - SCROOBY DOO - 1st @ 5.50
**This is effectively a 3 horse race ( subtle knife will need further on breeding ) , The boys in blue have an excellent record here and Hurriya could easily be good enough to win here however i feel that BY INVITATION has enough form in the book ( and experience ) that on this occasion could show to be slightly better today , was unlucky last time when short for room , found a run and gave up when the moment had passed , scrooby doo should be good enough to earn some place money and thats that.
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15:20
BACK - ASTROLIBRA - Unplaced
LAY - ILLUSTRATION £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - MASTER OF SONG - 1st @ 6.62
**Another pickle to ponder over , astrolibra is no star but can race effectively from anywhere between 1m-2m ( flat and jumps ) and with fitness assured i feel that Buick will try and run the legs of what remains a very poor bunch with only master of song showing any real form that however is mostly over 1m ( where he has weakened significantly in final stages , this is 1m4f ) .
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15:50
BACK - SWEET LAVANDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Lost £250
LAY - DERAASA £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 5.0 = Lost £1000
EW - EYEDORO - 2nd @ 2.91
**I think this is nailed on , already beaten its stablemate comfortably as eyedoro has beaten the other runner , this therefore on all known form is a 2 horse race and there is no known reason why the form should be reversed.
** There ya go..another rick in the ratings.....and another unwanted loss!!...
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16:20
BACK - SUDDENLY SUSAN - 3rd @ 7.8
LAY - GOOD TIMIN £250 @ 4.6 ( KEEP BET ) - unplaced ( bet unmatched )
EW - WINNING DRAW - unplaced
**Rough ol claimer ( usual for these meets ) just gone with the stats/data and the cd form available...no real confidence behind either tbh , suddenly susan @ 5.9 is worth a nibble ew.
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16:50
BACK - ZARIUS - unplaced
LAY - IL BATTISTA £500 @ 4.4 ( with a back trade set , £250 @ 7.2 ) - 1st ( all matched ) = LOST £150
EW - APRIL FOOL - unplaced
**I really like both AF and Zarius here and feel both back here can run big races , i will probs ew dutch both.
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17:20
BACK - EASTERN HILLS - 1ST @ 16.11
LAY - BEECHCROFT BARON - £500 @ 2.4 ( trade set £250 @ 4.2 ) - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - ELUSIVE WARRIOR - 3rd @ 16.68
**I feel Beechcroft baron is far too short here ( 2.4 ) yes it has 2 pieces of decent course form but its overall profile is rather doggish and i would much rather have the field against it , this is one of those lays that you have to max on and just suck it up if it goes wrong, value wise its a gimme...
***Finally something good this afternoon, i thought for a moment we was going down the same road as yesterday with a great start and a horrid finish , after the mid afternoon collapse i had a decent punt on eastern hills and a saver on the 3rd so i have made a nice bit from this race , shame i dint post this on blog as this would have made the blogs figures a lot better, but hey ho...!!
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17:50
BACK - RIFELSSIONE - **£250 - 1st @ 4.14 = WON £780-00
LAY - GALA SPIRIT £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - PORTGWIDDEN BEACH - Unplaced
**Tough un for the getting out stakes , if im down i will level stakes take the lay and back rifelssione as it really shud be too good for these today , sprinters in form are worth following and even more so when they are in races as shite as this.
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P n L = £380-00 Profit
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Analysis : A very tough card , albeit typical for the aw and the kind of cards you should be gearing towards as winter approaches....
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***After a very unusual mid afternoon ( twice now ) collapse i came storming back with two great winners to finish the day with a profit , i would obv much prefer to just sail thru each and every day but sometimes this just isnt possible , but again look at the positives!!...ew bets hit the first three winners with an additional 2 places giving a return in 5/8 races and the speed ratings hitting those last two with one at 16+ also secures another very nice profit!!...shall i facebook that fact im doing well like all the other wankers...nah will i fuck!! , i just my readers are backing the winners and leaving the losers ( or at least making a profit )....days like today can strain the nerves but you just have to keep the faith , keep doing what works and never falter when the bad times arrive, its all about the long term...goodnight folks, cya tmrw....
I really do hate the cold and miserable weather we seem to get so much of ;-( .
Yesterday was a good day racing wise although the blog took a back end battering after such a scoopalicious start , but some days thats just the way it goes , what is impossible is to win every race , everyday , thats just a ludicrous thought , however what is possible is to make a constant and consistent profit day in day out , week in and week out , thats the key to all forms of punting , staying ahead , unless your a weekend punter larging your bets up with ridic £5 lucky 15's etc in the hope of that one big payday....
Well as we all know the Official Flat season is not far from ending with the nights drawing in , nh kicking in its time we started to concentrate on the AW fixtures , each course has its own personality , it acts seperate from each other and in some cases the surface is different , so the form at southwell may not be relevant exclusively at wolverhampton etc...CD is quite often a critical factor as is the draw and are they front runners....a lot of different factors have to be weighed in , much like turf , and also as with the turf some jockeys do better than some at the differing tracks.
Question for AL, PK , Boom and anyone else that reads and punts , thinking ahead for the next few months is there any specific area you want concentrating on , any meetings? , any bet types ? ....let me help you , ...
For today and along with the theme of the blog i shall be posting up the Southwell card...
SOUTHWELL
Draw Advantage:
5f None, 6f Low best.
Flat and National Hunt. The flat action predominantly takes place on an all-weather Fibresand track that is left-handed, level and about ten furlongs in circumference. There is a straight five furlongs course. Occasionally flat racing takes to the turf track, which runs on the inside of the all-weather circuit, and has a similar layout. National Hunt racing is also held on this grass course, where there is a run-in from the last obstacle of 220 yards.
The Fibresand track was relaid in the summer of 2000 and is now a very consistent racing surface, that tends to ride a little slower and more testing than the other Fibresand courses.
| Name | Wins | Runs | % | Places | % |
| R Winston | 60 | 362 | 16.6 | 134 | 37 |
| T Eaves | 47 | 445 | 10.6 | 144 | 32.4 |
| S Donohoe | 36 | 243 | 14.8 | 62 | 25.5 |
| P Cosgrave | 32 | 219 | 14.6 | 72 | 32.9 |
| S De Sousa | 21 | 136 | 15.4 | 42 | 30.9 |
| Billy Cray | 16 | 110 | 14.6 | 31 | 28.2 |
| Name | Wins | Runs | % | Places | % |
| M Johnston | 74 | 287 | 25.8 | 140 | 48.8 |
| D Nicholls | 52 | 267 | 19.5 | 108 | 40.5 |
| C E Brittain | 13 | 63 | 20.6 | 23 | 36.5 |
| T D Easterby | 9 | 113 | 8 | 23 | 20.4 |
| D O'meara | 6 | 33 | 18.2 | 12 | 36.4 |
| B J Meehan | 3 | 17 | 17.7 | 7 | 41.2 |
| J Ryan | 1 | 29 | 3.5 | 2 | 6.9 |
| G A Harker | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 42.9 |
So there you have some std stats for trainers and jockeys...
___________________________________________________________________
...
14:20
BACK - MANDERSTON - Unplaced
LAY - ABSOLUTE FUN £250 @ 7.6 - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - VOCIFEROUS - 1st @ 6.0
**What a tough piece of shit this is to start the day , the lay im happy with , however the winner , well thats a puzzle in a puzzle and not even a lucky pin can help here , so based on all my data and all known speed form ratings available to me i have decided to plump for the two " always trying " from the MJ yard with manderston just coming out on top.
____________________________________________________________
14:50 ( no bet race )
BACK - BY INVITATION - 3rd @ 2.54
LAY - HURRIYA - Unplaced
EW - SCROOBY DOO - 1st @ 5.50
**This is effectively a 3 horse race ( subtle knife will need further on breeding ) , The boys in blue have an excellent record here and Hurriya could easily be good enough to win here however i feel that BY INVITATION has enough form in the book ( and experience ) that on this occasion could show to be slightly better today , was unlucky last time when short for room , found a run and gave up when the moment had passed , scrooby doo should be good enough to earn some place money and thats that.
____________________________________________________________
15:20
BACK - ASTROLIBRA - Unplaced
LAY - ILLUSTRATION £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - MASTER OF SONG - 1st @ 6.62
**Another pickle to ponder over , astrolibra is no star but can race effectively from anywhere between 1m-2m ( flat and jumps ) and with fitness assured i feel that Buick will try and run the legs of what remains a very poor bunch with only master of song showing any real form that however is mostly over 1m ( where he has weakened significantly in final stages , this is 1m4f ) .
____________________________________________________________
15:50
BACK - SWEET LAVANDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Lost £250
LAY - DERAASA £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 5.0 = Lost £1000
EW - EYEDORO - 2nd @ 2.91
**I think this is nailed on , already beaten its stablemate comfortably as eyedoro has beaten the other runner , this therefore on all known form is a 2 horse race and there is no known reason why the form should be reversed.
** There ya go..another rick in the ratings.....and another unwanted loss!!...
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16:20
BACK - SUDDENLY SUSAN - 3rd @ 7.8
LAY - GOOD TIMIN £250 @ 4.6 ( KEEP BET ) - unplaced ( bet unmatched )
EW - WINNING DRAW - unplaced
**Rough ol claimer ( usual for these meets ) just gone with the stats/data and the cd form available...no real confidence behind either tbh , suddenly susan @ 5.9 is worth a nibble ew.
____________________________________________________________
16:50
BACK - ZARIUS - unplaced
LAY - IL BATTISTA £500 @ 4.4 ( with a back trade set , £250 @ 7.2 ) - 1st ( all matched ) = LOST £150
EW - APRIL FOOL - unplaced
**I really like both AF and Zarius here and feel both back here can run big races , i will probs ew dutch both.
____________________________________________________________
17:20
BACK - EASTERN HILLS - 1ST @ 16.11
LAY - BEECHCROFT BARON - £500 @ 2.4 ( trade set £250 @ 4.2 ) - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - ELUSIVE WARRIOR - 3rd @ 16.68
**I feel Beechcroft baron is far too short here ( 2.4 ) yes it has 2 pieces of decent course form but its overall profile is rather doggish and i would much rather have the field against it , this is one of those lays that you have to max on and just suck it up if it goes wrong, value wise its a gimme...
***Finally something good this afternoon, i thought for a moment we was going down the same road as yesterday with a great start and a horrid finish , after the mid afternoon collapse i had a decent punt on eastern hills and a saver on the 3rd so i have made a nice bit from this race , shame i dint post this on blog as this would have made the blogs figures a lot better, but hey ho...!!
____________________________________________________________
17:50
BACK - RIFELSSIONE - **£250 - 1st @ 4.14 = WON £780-00
LAY - GALA SPIRIT £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - PORTGWIDDEN BEACH - Unplaced
**Tough un for the getting out stakes , if im down i will level stakes take the lay and back rifelssione as it really shud be too good for these today , sprinters in form are worth following and even more so when they are in races as shite as this.
____________________________________________________________
P n L = £380-00 Profit
____________________________________________________________
Analysis : A very tough card , albeit typical for the aw and the kind of cards you should be gearing towards as winter approaches....
____________________________________________________________
***After a very unusual mid afternoon ( twice now ) collapse i came storming back with two great winners to finish the day with a profit , i would obv much prefer to just sail thru each and every day but sometimes this just isnt possible , but again look at the positives!!...ew bets hit the first three winners with an additional 2 places giving a return in 5/8 races and the speed ratings hitting those last two with one at 16+ also secures another very nice profit!!...shall i facebook that fact im doing well like all the other wankers...nah will i fuck!! , i just my readers are backing the winners and leaving the losers ( or at least making a profit )....days like today can strain the nerves but you just have to keep the faith , keep doing what works and never falter when the bad times arrive, its all about the long term...goodnight folks, cya tmrw....
morning mg very interesting stat on proform blog about u.s.a. bred sires at southwell p.k.
ReplyDeleteyes mate, i have read quite a few as a lot of people are under the assumption that USA bred horses and horses from USA sorts automatically like the dirt or will act better than on the dirt , this is in fact , well i think you can call it an " urban myth " , ALL horses can run on all ground types , turf / dirt and sand however american sires in there entirety are trained making there gait slightly different from common horses , a horses gait is not a perpetually transefered genetically , every horse regardless of breeding should be taken on its own merits , yes it is true that breeding can assist in developing a type of horse , yes it can effect a horses ability , yes it may well carry over traits from its parentage , ie: it maybe a stayer or a sprinter , but every horse must be understood as an individual but the breeding can be used as a guide....
ReplyDeleteis it me or old age creeping up a lot of theese commentators seem to hysterically shout the horses home,not them all .usa bingo pk
ReplyDeletemg wont be around for a day or two might get to follow on my phone hopefully keep up the good work p.k.
ReplyDeleteOMFG Driver was overrated gash, yes well directed and acted, but take out the excessive violence and you are left with nothing, seeing Bryan Cranston in this just showed how much better tv shows are than films these days, theres more tension, emotion and drama in 5 mins of Breaking Bad than 90 mins of this waste of time...
ReplyDeleteJust seen this...could hot have put it better...
ReplyDeleteThe movie "Drive" starts off great. Pacey soundtrack, great action, cool pink 80's font on the titles, noticeably unique direction, intriguing protagonist... and then just as you're starting to enjoy the love story unfolding between Ryan Gosling and Carey Mulligan the movie warps into a graphically violent predictable mob story where everyone gets their head smashed in or their arms cut off or stabbed to death with a fork. Ryan Gosling actually puts his foot through a man's face and ribcage repeatedly in one of the grossest 60 seconds in cinema I can recall. And the character's murderous sociopath's proclivities are never explained with back story. This movie could have been so good but the gore was gratuitous and pointless and at the end of the movie you know no more about Gosling's character than you do at the beginning. Other things that made no sense: The strippers watch their boss get smashed up with a hammer and not one of them reacts AT ALL. They all just sit there like dumb extras that someone forgot to direct. Sure strippers may have seen a lot and be less sensitive than others but surely a couple of the twelve women in the dressing room would scream, throw up, or at least cover her eyes when witnessing someone getting tortured and smashed up with a hammer. They had zero reaction. Carey Mulligan's character barely reacts to her husbands violent death and there is also no reason or explanation for her slapping Ryan Gosling in the face when he says he helped her husband.
Ha , horses for courses , i enjoyed it but i spoze its not gonna be to everyones taste....i did say it was a bit shallow and not what i expected , but still was well made...your a harsh critic!!...but yeah i do also think that a lot of tv shows are better than the films, some films cost millions and last 1 1/2 hours , most tv shows are 45 mins - 1 hour and a lot better...but there are also a lot of big name actors doing the weeklies now...and yes i agree with most of the above...
ReplyDeletealso today somebody pointed out that if you used every selection ( inc lay ) from every race the total nos of bets is 6561 ( 3x3x3 etc ) , so to have a Goliath with every outcome covered today ( all selections in every combo ) to a cost of £1 would set you back £162,067 ( £162k )...the most that could have been won today would have been Total Return
ReplyDelete£1,296,489.00 , and thats just on 1 single bet....over £1million profit with all the other bets still to be added in...rough estimates he thinks that around £6 million plus was to be won today...better than the scoop 6 ;-)))