Friday, 22 February 2013

Dealers Choice

Tmrw is Saturday , our big racing day of the week and instead of doing a race card or running thru some random i will instead give a detailed analysis of 5 races, those races are to be picked by you , my lovely readers , so come on , use the comment box and tell me what races you what analysing!!...same person / multi person..first 5 races entered into the comment box will be our Races of Interest..Feast or Famine..its upto you...lets smash em on Saturday ;)

DOM CHELSEA , Good afternoon mate, as you may or may not yet know but Newcastle is caped due to the Snow ;( , but here is your 2nd choice the 14:05 Kempton.

14:05 KEMPTON : VASCO DU RONCERAY
A 2m Juvenile Hurdle ( Grade 2 ) and a viciously competitive affair it is , 7 runners with two that can be insta discounted ( Fosters Road & Shadrapour ) leaves 5 ( good at maths i am ;-) ) and all the remaining 5 have a case , they all have or in form , they all have potential or potential for more and we have 2 chasing Hat Tricks!.
From a form perspective i feel Vasco Du Ronceray has the strongest form as it would have given the impressive and highly regarded Far West a tougher fight up the run in if it hadn't gone thru the last fence and lost all chance ( only 1 Length down at the time ) and is a confirmed stayer, will stay the trip at pace as it travels very well and does have a touch of class.
Irish Saint also has some smart form and ran well against Rolling Aces lto and these two ( Vasco d r ) are closely matched on collateral form  ( Roc D'Apsis ) having both beaten that beast by around 30L and i doubt there will be much separating them today.
Chris Pea Green is a horse on the up but this will be a severe acid test ( big jump in class ) and although routing a good field at Huntingdon having to give the likes of Vascoo Du Ronceray 3lb may well be beyond him at this stage.
L'Unique is a CD winner and has done little wrong thus far however the quality of opposition it has dispatched is meagre and this does have a profile of a chaser and will imo be better suited when faced with some of the bigger obstacles , a decent hurdler yes but triumph class...i doubt it.
Which just leaves the smart flat horse and debutante Courtesy Call ex Mark Johnston and a solid 2m flat winner and a good 2nd over 2m2f leaves the impression that this has a bright future and Senor Spence has moved quite a lot of horses over to Hendo to train and im sure he would want a bright start from this and must have some confidence regarding its ability otherwise he wouldnt be chucking it in and this is still entered up for the Triumph Hurdle. I havent been in touch with any of the team this weekend which is a shame and this isnt on my pre season list so i have no notes for it but one would suspect that BG has made the right choice.

SUMMARY : 
I think the winner will be either IRISH SAINT or VASCO DU RONCERAY and im finding it very hard to split these two , VDR is currently 4.6 and has obvious potential for a BTL with Irish Saint 2.58 this leaves enough room to safely Dutch the pair ( imo the best bet ) if i had to hang my coat on one i would pick.......VDR...just because i liked that run behind Far West and its a thorough stayer , quick jumper ( usually ) and travels very well. 
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Next up is 2 Races from Michael009 ( G'day Baz ) .....
And Michael has chose the 14:30 @ Lingfield and the 14:40 @ Kempton...a couple of nice races.

14:30 LINGFIELD : YORK GLORY ( EW ) -
On the AW aside from the Winter Derby the Cleves Stakes  ( Listed ) is probably the next biggest profile race they have , a 6f sprint worth £35k and a Class 1 so as expected the cream of the AW game are in attendance ( not really, rather poor turn out imo , but im building it up ) .
YORK GLORY is the one they all have to beat here a full second quickest on my speed panel was in fine form last back end and returned to action with a good run at Wolverhampton just being out sped by Piscean but will have been primed for this by his smart handler and is the most likely winner.
There are only 3 others in this field that appeal to me and they are Noverre to Go , Farmleigh House and Capone and there is virtually nothing between them on my OSR ( 0.25 secs )  and any one of the three could easily easily get involved and with luck in running possibly even snatch a win , tough call but i am loathed to go against York Glory here.

SUMMARY : Has to be York Glory for me and at a rather attractive 3.85 this is where my cash will be going and if the price moves out a bit more ( 4.2 ) i will be hitting it even bigger in the place market as this is another race that is effectively a 5 runner field paying top three and i think it has an outstanding chance of placing and a very good chance of winning today.
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14:40 KEMPTON : MOLOTOF -
Now we have a 2m4f Novice Chase and the easiest of todays races thus far , this should be a straight fight between Grandioso & Molotof although Theatre Guide has the ability is best watched until it strings some form together and improves its jumping.
Molotof & Grandioso have similar profiles, neither have done much wrong and both have recent winning form , both like the distance, both like the ground and both have their respective Nos 1 Jockey's riding...On recent form Grandioso is the slower , clocking lower average times however based upon its last run although it was 3 secs quicker in travelled 110yd's less and the ground in Molotof's race was bottomless so i think that was a better performance , however it is still an almost impossible task to split these and at 2.38 & 3.2 the Dutch is a Skinny Latte of a bet , a solid but expensive bet i think for me , personally i will be getting a decent lump on MOLOTOF as i have reviewed every race in both back catalogues and i do feel this is the more reliable option , safer jumper and slightly quicker.

SUMMARY : A good race but for me MOLOTOF just has the edge but this should go to the wire and if you fancy a punt at bigger odds then maybe Theatre Guide as this could easily get into the shake up if settling down.
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