Saturday, 9 February 2013

NEWBURY

WoW what a day of racing we have today, some spectacular animals on show today and for me today's big card is at NEWBURY where we have a host of stars old n new, a lot of potential and a lot of Cheltenham clues...where do we start?..well i will have a peruse through the card , race by race and see what we find....

RACE 1 : CHATTERBOX ( 1.86 ) - 1st ( Easy@ 2.35
Well a fairly straight forward task in the first and it will be a fav winning to get us off to a flyer , CHATTERBOX is miles clear and has form that is simply in a different county compared to the field , imo this will win hard held as these will struggle to get this off the bridle and even the current 1.86 looks huge....i would have thought more around 1.4...so my advice...Fill your boots!! ( NAP )
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RACE 2 : MINELLA CLASS ( 20.0 ) - UNP
A tricky 3m Hcap Hurdle next and a decent field with some familiar faces none more so than the enigmatic Captain Sunshine!!...do i give him one more try or bite the bullet and end our relationship?....ok its decided..its over , im abandoning that ship....for this race i feel you can leave out any horse in form or out of form...does that make sense?...let me explain for a race of this nature and make up i feel you need a horse either aimed or primed , one that is slowly coming to hand , one that has been relatively lightly campaigned but is wise enough to navigate thru a big field...and the three i like here are ARALDUR , MINELLA CLASS & RANGITOTO all 3 have been lightly campaigned all 3 look ready to pounce and they tick all my boxes so who do i go for ( if not dutching )  , well thats a pickle but fortunately at the current prices you can easily afford to Dutch these ( 7.0 / 18.5 / 20.0 ) , i do like Minella Class as a standout as it is now racing off a mark which is some 16lb lower than we he last ran over hurdles and that race was the Baring Bingham in which he was just 9L behind the likes of Rock on Ruby , First Lieutenant & Oscars Well...very good form in itself but in all races of any sort since he has always appeared not to truly stay ( 2m5f is probs optimum ) so is it worth " chancing " that the weight and pace will get him round, the fact he can conserve energy with not having the big chase fences to lunge over?....at 20/1 i feel that is built into the price but i must also admit this has my mind in a quandary...having further examined most of the available form i feel the trip holds many a question mark but the easing ground has to be a positive for many...i will be dutching the 3 ...thats my only choice here. - Best Finish was ARALDUR - 3RD @ 30.2 ( Captain Sunshine rattled home for 2nd )
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RACE 3 : SILVINIACO CONTI ( 1.74 ) - 1st @ 1.93
Now we have the Denman chase and this is a lot easier to solve...Silviniaco Conti a horse that started his big season off by smashing the shit out off some hardy veterans and some useful talent in the Charlie Hall chase , then next up he gave the Mighty Long Run a bloody nose in the Betfair Chase and holds most on literal or lateral form and is simply not opposable , i find it impossible to think of a scenario where this loses today?...it falls..thats about it...( NB & Double ).
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RACE 4 : EDGARDO  SOL ( 5.0 ) - 3rd @ 3.89 ( Cracking Finish )
This doesn't get any easier now we have the Game Spirit Chase over 2m1f and a very competitive small field too.
All are distance winners ( Wishful Thinking has won between 16l-21f so that counts ) , they are all in form of sorts , and all have a fair bit of ability, there are no real weak links.
I do feel tho realistically that this is a step too far for Pigeon Island and that can be safely ruled out.
French Opera did win a weakish renewal of this two years ago and Tanks for that is not quite the class you would expect for a race of this nature , Wishful Thinking is enigmatic and for me is the Class in the race however he is quite prone to throwing in a stinker or two and cannot be fully trusted to run to form and that just leaves the Niccolls pair and i will be dutching these two as i cant split them. but as AP rode Edgardo lto in the Paddy Power chase ( i like the look of that form ) he just gets a slight nod ftw.**Wishful Thinking runs to form and wins in a great Finish**
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RACE 5 : COTTON MILL ( 10.5 ) - 2nd @ 12.6 ( My Tent or Yours wins v v v easy )
Now we move onto the show piece , the toughest race of the day and a huge 21 runner field full of class , its the Betfair Hurdle ( GD 3 Hcap ) over 2m 110y and this will have everything, pace , falls , jostling , tactical errors...what a cracking race!! ,  lets start with the good ol Jolly , My Tent or Yours a horse with undoubted class , cracking form and with a top team combo helping to justifiably tick all the boxes , however as i have previously stated i have deep seated concerns and reservations regarding this horses temperament and his willingness to battle ( as i feel he will have to today ) and i will again be leaving him alone and looking elsewhere ( if he wins this without attitude i will be converted and i will smash into him for Cheltenham ) so where do we go w/o the Fav..Well i think the first port of call surely has to be Cotton Mill a horse with any amount of ability but also has the Fergie training quirks ( a lot of his have ducked out this season ) but this did give the wonder horse Simonsig a fright in the Baring Bingham before falling when in clear lead 3 out and has previous form to entitle this to be bang there , a few may say the trip is a tad short but this is a quality ex flat horse that has also won over 10F and i really dont see an issue with the trip...i am really quite keen on this today.
Manyriverstocross is interesting coming back from a 816 day break but was last seen getting placed in a very tough graded hurdle race and if he retains his ability is well worth chancing for a place at huge odds ( 100.00 )
Pearl Swan i love for its guts and desire to win , a horse that races on and off the bridle all the way round , quite often looks to be getting pushed along mid race only to find the heart of a lion and run on and horse that can quite often challenge 2 out on the bit and then tank....but def has ability and has to go on my shortlist.
Cash n Go & Cause of Causes both look like sorts of good quality and are obviously very useful but both will have to improve to get involved in the finish.
Petit Robin is a battler and a good traveller and could easily be good enough to get into the mix.
The final 3 to look at are The Betchworh Kid , Swing Bowler & Claret Cloak , all 3 have ability and all are in with some form of a chance.

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