Wednesday, 6 February 2013

Would not want to be a Bookie today...;()

Well i had a nice short priced winner pay for some gas & electric , you may say " well ya didnt win much then " to which i would reply.." you have no idea how much it costs to have the heating on for a whole day & tumble dryers etc "....anyway as we move onto this fine fresh ( and cold ) day we take a gentle swath through the cards and they reveal a heap of red hot jollies today but they cant all win..surely..so lets take a look at the Odds on Jollies on show and dissect..... `
I will work my way thru by meeting and in chronological order...

1.Southwell 16:15 - NAALATT - 1.77 - Pissed in by 10L..Job Done @ 1.51 ;-)
This has an outstanding chance with realistically only the MJ newcomer to beat it has everything in its favour , ticks all the boxes and is rated 77 and i feel that is a fair rating on form and ability shown , so if this can be re-produced and maybe with a little more improvement there is every chance that it could , if needed , run to a mark of 79-81 now in any maiden on any course any time of the year for a newcomer to come out fto and run to a mark of 80+ is very hard indeed and rarely do any achieve this bar the exceptional ones and future group class horses and Mirth is a beautifully bred daughter of Teofolio and could indeed be very smart but my feelings are that if this was a 80+ rated horse at home they would wait until the flat season proper and give it some proper targets , but MJ does also run a few here , there and everywhere and as previously discussed he is a trainer that is impossible to predict , but for me NAALATT has lump job written all over it.

2.Ludlow 13:40 - PRIORS GOLD 1.54 - 2nd @ 1.51 ( Beaten at 1.03 , thrown away, out battled )
Again this is another that has absolutely nothing to beat has by miles easily the best form on offer has run with a degree of consistency and simply cannot be opposed as i cannot make any type of case for the remainder.

3.Ludlow 14:40 - NEW YEARS EVE - 1.41 - 2nd @ 1.31 ( quirky/awkward ) - 1st - PTIT ZIG @ 9.34
Form wise this is quite a way clear after running 2nd in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham festival and starting this season off with a fine 2nd behind the very useful River Maigue and quite simply a run of that calibre should dispose of these however i do feel that 1.41 is way short enough here and i am happy to take this for a trade as i will be shocked if this doesnt trade higher pre or in running i will be personally looking to get out at around 1.63 this i feel is a very achievable target in the most likely scenario this does win but there is enough in this field to make me think its worth taking on , in particular i like PTIT ZIG ( 1st @ 9.34 ) , CLOUD CREEPER ( 3rd @ 57.4 )& CELTIC ABBEY so i have the required minimum of three runners for me in order to take on a Jolly in a field of this nature and size , hey i may well lose coin here but its gotta be done!.

4.13:50 Carlisle - EDUARD - 1.18 - Pissed in at 1.14 - 1st
This is so far ahead in terms of ability and shown / known form that it is both unbackable and even at 1.18 unlayable....only the radio rentals would even try and go against this very smart horse ...just a pointless exercise...got a spare £100??..whack it on and make £18 insta profit...yeah you can do that...easier than finding money in the street...this will only lose if it falls...so if you do back it then also place lay it for cover...

5.14:20 Carlisle - VULCANITE - 1.65 - 2nd @ 2.0 ( Jumped tardily again and was well beaten, Fair n Square ) , PTS BET was a BooM ;)
This is priced probably just about right, low enough for a solid book, high enough to attract the players but im not so sure with this one, jumped rather tardily lto and does have to prove its quality and with what i feel is a competitive small field to take him on i think he could get worried out of it, he wont get things all his own way and will have to improve certain aspects of his game to beat these previous distance winners , this is too high currently for me to trade either way , up or down...i will maxing my PTS bet on this race...its ripe for it.

So these are the 5 i will cover today for now and tbh i wouldnt be at all surprised if all 5 won as they all look solid , but will they??...who do you think will lose today???...

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