Friday, 15 February 2013

The BIG Saturday Card..

And its for Ascot as a couple of readers made the effort to comment and engage in some conversation which makes a very nice change to just chatting inanely to myself ...i hope i can turn this effort into a winner or two or a couple of Winning bets or at the very least offer some guidance in his betting day ;-)..
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ASCOT

RACE 1 : AIM TO PROSPER - EW - 2nd @ 3.85
A tight race over an obscure trip with three very closely matched rivals namely , Up and Go , Sausalito Sunrise and AIM TO PROSPER and it is the latter i will be pinning my hopes on here.
Why , well thats a damn good question and i must point out that firstly and rather un- scientifically this is a selection of the " heart over head " design as this is a horse i am desperate to see succeed a horse with an endless amount of class and ability....until he sees a hurdle then he becomes a very average horse and one of very limited ability...which is a crying shame because if this could jump like it can travel then we would have another Kribensis , this stays no problem and can race on most ground types from Good/Firm to Good/Soft a horse that has won the Cesarewitch not once but twice!!...this does deserve a break and it will get it once the penny has dropped about jumping when that does happen this could be as good as anything out there...but jumping lazily , not picking his legs up and running down hurdles costs big time so i will be placing my bets and hoping that he has learnt something and that finally he realise that to be a winner he has to jump.
Form wise Copper Birch has as much chance as any now that 2L 2nd to Fishers Cross reads superbly well but this did disappoint on its last run and is best watched imo, couldnt back nor lay.
Up and Go's career reads " Wins or Falls " but has won well and against some good opposition and should not be under estimated and if Aim to Prosper is to win then he will have to be at the top of his game.
Sausalito Sunrise probably has the weakest form of those mentioned but does love the ground, stays all day and has a great attitude and is open to bags of improvement and it would not shock if this won.
the only anomaly i can find in the early market is with Royal Guardsman which is currently 16.0 when it should be nearer 30.0...
WIN - UP AND GO - 1st @ 2.81
EW- AIM TO PROSPER - 2nd @ 3.85
LONG - COPPER BIRCH -
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RACE 2 : ROCKY CREEK - ( WIN ) - 1st @ 1.72
Now we have the Reynoldstown a Grade 2 3m Chase for Novices and its a small field affair but high on quality but it will take a epic and career best performance to lower the colours of Rocky Creek a very likeable sort with huge ability and a horse just starting to realise its own potential and its recent thrashing off Fill the Power by 15L was on the back of a gut busting 2nd splitting a good pair in Gullunbursti & Harry Topper and that is excellent form which has been franked ( not that it really needed to be ) and on a very strict and literal form line using Harry Topper the Plumb Line then Houblon Des Obeaux ( HDO )  has 2L to find which in all fairness is as near to fuck all as you need as you can make or lose that with a jumping error so literally form wise there is nothing to split them and Bearing in mind that HDO does have some quite smart form himself just getting out gunned by the smart and progressive Captain Conan and Court in Motion but last seasons thrashings at the hands of Cape Tribulation would suggest that HDO is a likeable sort with a fair amount of ability but a bit short off top class and for me is avoided.
Real Milan comes into the picture as a live threat and again using the imperious Harry Topper as our form key then there is even less to separate these main protagonists based on Real Milans superb run last year in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival ( beaten 14L by Brindisi Breeze ( RIP ) however its next run was in a 3 runner race and it only beat Poole Master 6L ( doggish and thrashed recently )  and then beating some rag n bone sorts leaving a very low grade look to his form and with that is also readily over looked.
Tour Des Champs has a good looking profile but looks can be deceiving as this also raced in the Betfair Lotto Chase in which Rocky Creek thrashed Fill the Power by 15L and was well and truly beaten before falling and i see absolutely no reason at all why this should hold any chance of reversing the form, so is over looked.
All said and done , after analysing all relevant facts and reviewing all form lines i simply do not know how Rocky Creek can lose this, it has its two main protagonists beaten by lateral form another beaten on literal form and the remainder just are not good enough..... Quite Simply..ROCKY CREEK = NAP.

WIN - ROCKY CREEK - 1st @ 1.72
EW-N/A
LONG - N/A
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RACE 3 : ASHKAZAR ( EW ) - Unplaced ( Threw an absolute shocker, but it wasnt totally a surprise , Vino Griego Ran well and held on for the Win )
Moving on we now have a Listed Hcap chase over 3m  and this is tricky as a few may well be prepping for a tilt at the National , others are out of form , a few are just poor and there is nearly a stone in weight difference from top to bottom so this is indeed a puzzle to solve.
Personally i will be having a small EW on my HCE Saturday tipping comp horse ASHKAZAR this is from the Pipe stable and ridden by Timmy Murphy and is a horse with a great deal of talent in fact its what you could call a group horse...on its day...but those days when it decides to run to form are extremely hard to fathom as you have no idea what mood this will be in on the day so you back this and just hope that it has its happy head on , If running as well as it can it could rout these but is just as likely to pull itself up at the third fence...yes its that quirky.
Form wise i would say coming into this race then Vino Griego is probably the most in form however it does have the extra 10lb to carry from its lto win and it has shown previously that when it runs over any extended trips a tendency to weaken and not see out a finish and that is enough for me to rule this out.
The Rainbow Hunter and Saint Are are the two i feel most likely to be fighting out a finish as both have some recent form , both are distance winners , both like the ground and the remainder are a mixture of dour & dire.
WIN - SAINT ARE - 3rd @ 9.28
EW - THE RAINBOW HUNTER - 4th
LONG - ASHKAZAR - shit
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RACE 4 : TANGO DE JUILLEY ( EW ) -
Next up its a Hcap Hurdle over the odd 3m3f trip , a decent size filed and rather competitive and a very big 21lb swing in the weights means i will be focusing away from the top guns for sure.
The Bear Trap is getting a ton of weight from most of this field , has AP in the saddle and some tidy form to offer so has to go on the shortlist..surely?...well not for me it doesnt , it travels very well but finds nil , its over all form profile is weak and i just cant how this can get involved here , i have at least 4 or 5 in front and this is readily over looked.
The Cockney Mackem is or at least looks like an exposed stayer and is not a horse i like much and is struck off with ease.
Kuilsriver .( 1st @ 59.0 )...now this i think at a huge price has the ability and race conditions to sneak a place ( currently 42.0 ) for those of you that like to " chance their arm " then this is not too bad a bet tbh , highly tried in racing against the likes of Tetlami , Zarkander , Keys , Medinas...and racing in fast paced bustling fields ( Triumph Hurdle ) this has the experience and knowledge to back up some obvious ability...there are far worse bets out there today than this.
Queens Grove has won its last four races and a couple in taking fashion but they were in a much lower grade and there was a lot of dead wood in those rubbers , this i feel is too steep a rise in class and should be reaily blown away.
The three i am mainly focusing on are , GENERAL MILLER , HOLD COURT & TANGO DE JUILLEY , with the former and the latter having over a year away from the course this presents a new set of problems but both Henderson and Williams are adept at getting their runners ready fto and for me this doesnt pose a problem , General Miller is a horse with undoubted ability but has rarely raced beyond the comfort of 2m but this has raced in some very high profile races at Punchestown ( Champion Hurdle )  , Big races at Cheltenham and Aintree and against some very useful types including a 5L 2nd to the mighty Overturn and there is nothing on his breeding to suggest that this wont stay but betting this does come with risks.
Hold Court has form that is miles apart from each other , lto it was thrashed into 3rd 37L by The New One  but prior had beat Heronry ( 4th ) by 15L ( won yesterday ) so its hard to grasp just now , is it the real deal or does it flatter to deceive?...for me the jury is out however it would be no shock to see this up there at the finish, and Finally we have The Venetia Williams trained TANGO DE JUILLEY a horse with definite ability but another to prove it can stay but i have a strong rather non scientific gut feeling that VW has had this as a fully planned prep for Cheltenham or even Aintree and i think this will go really well today.

WIN - HOLD COURT -
EW - TANGO DE JUILLEY -
LONG - GENERAL MILLER -
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RACE 5 : CUE CARD ( WIN ) - 1st @ 2.84
This is the BIG race for today the Betfair Ascot Chase a Grade 1 over 2m 5f with a small but select field but an easy call for me to make.
Finians Rainbow is a lovely horse that has done well for a one with limited ability , caught a few breaks and snatched a few wins but this is way off the top shelf in the yard and in this race i feel it will be lucky to get even a place, beaten soundly by Somersby ( been below par so far this season tho ) in the Victor Chandler , Beaten Fair n Square by Captain Chris ( in the Amlin by 24l ) and not as good as Cue Card means this is auto scratched along with Pigeon Island & Ghizao as neither of these are anywhere near good enough to compete at this level.
This really lies between Somersby , Captain Chris and CUE CARD , now Captain Chris is a cracking horse but i really feel it needs every bit of the 3m it last ran over as all its best work was being done at the end , then we have Somersby a horse i love that ran a wee bit flat fto behind SS but if that has sharpened him up could easily be swinging on the bridle 2 out then its race on against the one that i feel will be the eventual winner and that is CUE CARD , eased when beaten over a longer trip lto this is much more his field and race and will be 100% gteed to run his race and another decent win is on the ( Cue ) Cards! ;-)

WIN - CUE CARD - 1st @ 2.84
EW - SOMERSBY -
LONG - CAPTAIN CHRIS - 2nd @ 4.10
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RACE 6 : FAR WEST - ( WIN ) - 1st @ 1.63
A 2m Novice Hurdle and this is a straight fight between River Maigue and FAR WEST and i take the latter to win although there is nothing to split this pair.

WIN - FAR WEST - 1st @ 1.63
EW - RIVER MAIGUE - 2nd @ 2.72
LONG - N/A
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RACE 7 : CAPTAIN CUTTER ( NB ) - ( WIN ) - 3rd @ 2.79 ( Disappointed tbh , never really travelled that well yet AP still wanted to race from the back..Pfft ruined a good 4 fold, guess its just the treble today! )..
And finally we have the race of the day for me the nhf race and im really looking to seeing CAPTAIN CUTTER race  ( and win ) here as this is the beez neez ( so im told ) and this should be winning this today and then moving onto some far bigger targets.
Red Sherlock is the 1.93 Fav ? , is this because it won by 24L lto ?..may be but it still ran that in a SLOWER time over CD than Captain Cutter and you can forget the rest they will be fighting for third place only...

WIN - CAPTAIN CUTTER - 3rd @ 2.79
EW - RED SHERLOCK - 1st @ 1.76
LONG - N/A
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What ever your doing , have a great day , and Thanks Simon, yes the messages are coming through ;) , ttfn x



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