Thursday, 12 April 2012

Aintree - DAY 2

Evening All ( or morning / afternoon whenever your reading , delete as applicable ) , had a solid opening day and very happy with a few of the results with most races panning out as i had expected although truth be told PRP suffered 3 losses from 5 bets yesterday , our worst run yet ;-((...some crazy shit afloat!! will probs roll back to 1 a day to steady the ship.... buoyed by the over spilling of profits i think i tried to accelerate it further but instead  took a £400 Loss...Still well on for the £1500 per month target just got a bit of catching up to do.
Looking forward to Day 2....Here we go......


RACE 1Aintree 14:00 
Tangle Teezer Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)
£50000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110y, Class 1
BACK - DARLAN - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.81
*A good looking race to start the day off with the field packed with Quality and none more so than DARLAN a horse whose form figures really should show 11111 as he looked the most likeliest winner when falling 2 out ( 2 runs back ) and was an unlucky 2nd lto in the Supreme at Cheltenham , A well bred sort that travels supremely well is generally a solid , fluent, quick jumper this will take all the beating.
I expect Agent Archie to be a lot more involved after running well till tiring 2 out behind Darlan lto along with the other 2 Hendo Runners.
Of the others Prospect Wells is a horse that flatters to deceive as it races like a winner in every race and finds little although i feel different riding tactics may be employed today,Vulcanite is quite Interesting as this was quite a talking horse before it had even seen a race course, ran well when comfortably taking its Novice entry then ran ok in splitting All the Aces and Montbazon ( still leaves it a bit to find on form lines ) and then totally emptied between the last 2 in the supreme i would think there is more to come from this.
So having had a good look at the field and adjusting their ratings i can see no logical answer other than the Fav DARLAN.

RACE 2Aintree 14:30 
John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
£75000.00 added, 5yo plus, 3m 1f, Class 1
*A small turnout for this Novice Chase but ultra competitive and hard to split the 5 runners although strictly on  pure form Champion Court looks the answer and Solix has no chance what so ever although the form of the Ryman Chase gives Join Together the upper hand , Silviniaco Conti will get outstayed and Yes Tom looks like its tilting at windmills!!.
So my Answer here would be...Champion Court to just beat Join Together.
For betting reasons i would suggest a round lay on Solix and split the laybet 50/50 on a free dutch with the two mentioned.
RACE 3Aintree 15:05 
John Smith's Melling Chase (Grade 1)
£175000.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 1
*Interesting..Hmm..Now although the Fav Finians Rainbow has won over the Distance ( 2m3f110yds in the T-Bar @ Ascot 2010 ) this has always been thought of as an out and out 2 miler and having spoke with the team this morning this was confirmed , they are guessing as to whether or not it will truly stay a strong run 2m4f , over 2m this would be 1.6 or less after beating ( although rather fortuitously imo ) Sizing Europe lto this extra distance makes it a puzzle in a field that is a tad low on quality but full of confirmed stayers will there be something to come from the pack that can out stay FR on the long run in?.....Albertas Run is a battler and will certainly make a race of it , Kauto Stone is no " Star " , Forpaddy' is finished , Wishful Thinking lives life likes its name , Poquelin is only half decent , and the rest are out of form, out of their depth and cannot be considered so i would suggest that FINIANS RAINBOW is the most likely winner even being a ?? stayer , personally i will be backing this and having some cover on Albertas Run and a RFC.
RACE 4Aintree 15:40 
John Smith's Topham Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (National Course)
£100000.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m 5f 110y, Class 1
*Now we move onto probably the toughest race of the day to call , a huge 26 runner chase over the National course!!...a mini national if you like as a few of these may have considered the National before this.
Im not interested in last years winner Always Waining at all , laid out , got ready blah blah...feck off! wont be winning this today.
The four i really like are ,
1.TRIANGULAR : A tough consistent sort that jumps really well is strong and agile , travels well and gets this trip really well on all ground types that are anticipated at Aintree today , at 12.0 this is a cracking EW bet.

2.SUNDAY CITY : Interesting as an EW bet to nothing , been racing most recently in Hunter Chases and lumping 12s6lb on its last outing in 2nd , now today on its return to " rules " it only has to carry 10s2lb that is more than an incredible 2 stone less!! will feel like it has no jockey on lol!! and at a mouthwatering 85.0 i think its worth an EW punt to nothing.

3.FABALU : From the McCain yard , this is obviously no Red Rum but still has enough in the locker to make a good go of it round here , solid jumper, stays all day, uber consistent and gteed a fair run and @ 21.0 is of a price that entertains me.

4. DOUGLAS JULIAN : Anything Sue Smith sends out lately merits respect as she is in very good form and her string is in top condition , this is no star by any means but does stay and more importantly is another solid jumper is in form having won its last race and again at 30.0 is worth consideration in a very tough looking race where jumping and staying will be key.
***Have to say well done to the connections of Always Waining, i could never have had that and wrote off completely his chance of a 3 timer...but my what a gutsy performance, i got it wrong.
RACE 5Aintree 16:15 
John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
£100000.00 added, 4yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1
EW - COTTON MILL - 3rd @ 7.64
*And the day doesnt get any easier with a very tough and competitive Sefton , the First horse to mention has to be FINGAL BAY a horse that oozes class and is unbeaten this term and although it has yet to race this far i see no reason why it shouldnt stay the extra 1/2 mile my only reservation would be as to its condition after getting pulled out of Cheltenham ( could be a blessing ) as it had suffered a minor injury/setback , a tough call to make regarding this as this is a race jam packed full of talent.
COTTON MILL is hugely of interest as i had this down as the winner of the Bingham until it ducked out and unshipped and the winner of that race Simonsig makes a form line suggesting that there is little to choose between this and Fingal Bay.GULLINBURSTI  was pulled from the finale yesterday but had already been entered for this now interestingly enough this was always the main aim as this is a g'teed stayer and a smooth traveller , Emma feels that her charge will be bang there all the way and will outstay Fingal Bay and the rest from the last im on EW @ 15 and may have a bit more yet.
Finally we have HARRY TOPPER another G'teed stayer who is expected to run a big race today , this has form lines through Lovcen that give it every chance and another racing with an encouraging price at 18.5.
To summarise i will be going against the Fav Fingal Bay who at 2.62 is far too short in a race where it has questions to answer , yes i will be laying it , just enough to cover my EW bets with a bonus , if it does win this then i would start to look at the ante post market for next years Cheltenham Festival races as it will be a major force in everything from 2-3m.....but nonetheless it still has to prove it can truly stay , this will be its acid test.
**How disappointing was Gullinbursti..;-((...gutted....Great Race , but ultimately disappointing...
RACE 6Aintree 16:50 
John Smith's Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
£40000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 1
EW - N/A -
*Again a tough race but one in which if you took away the last run of every horse lined up would look completely impossible to solve , i will however give another chance to BOURNE from the McCain's , although 9th lto it only weakened in the last 100 yrds as was only beaten 7 lengths in a tough race at Cheltenham , a class animal on the flat and has shown to be quite classy over the sticks with a current price of 8.0 this is a solid EW bet in fact i am making this my EW NAP for the day , i really like this.
RACE 7Aintree 17:25 
John Smith's Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed)
£25000.00 added, 4-6yo, 2m 1f, Class 1
*Hmm , this is interesting as i have CALL ME A STAR absolutely miles clear and on ratings/form and stats should win this by a mile , but.....................actually there is no but lol , im lumping on this in the finale!! , what a fantastic " Get out of Jail Free " card to have after such a rough day!!..superb.
What a fantastic day of racing awaits , enjoy , be lucky , be prudent ;-)...ttfn x


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