Saturday, 14 April 2012

***Grand National***

Yes today is that day THE National Hunt Seasons big Hurraa , this 4m Snickers of a trip that finds many a good un out.
As usual we have a solid mix of Granite and Teak , Class and Arse , Dreams and Dreamers with a full line up taking place this is a spectacle to watch with the possibility of a payday at the end can we get that Winner , Can we get a decent priced placed horse?...I will try my best to conjure some horsey magic as i go through the card at Aintree today which will no doubt be as tough as the previous two days.
Two Brilliant winners yesterday in Darlan and Finians Rainbow , one Major disappointment in Gullinbursti and imo a very poor ride given to Call me a Star , but all my Laybets have been good and the profits are good so all in all a very satisfactory few days...Lets just hope we can continue.
Gold Star to anyone that can tell me the name of the horse in the Pic ;-).

********************************AINTREE***********************************

RACE 1 Aintree 13:45 
John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)
£50000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 1
BACK -SIMONSIG ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.50
EW -SUPER DUTY - 2nd @ 9.55
OUTSIDER -N/A -
*Hmmmm...SIMONSIG , thats all that needs to be said really , i see no reason to be going against this all class animal whose only defeat this season was to a very good run from Fingal Bay , those of you that dont like backing shorties or want some " Value " then i would suggest Super Duty EW @ 11.5 / 2.12.
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RACE 2 Aintree 14:15 
John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
£100000.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m, Class 1
BACK - SPRINTER SACRE - ( NB ) - 1st @ 1.15
EW - N/A -
OUTSIDER -  N/A -
*Sprinter Sacre..Nuff said ;-).
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RACE 3 Aintree 14:50 
John Smith's Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
£160000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 1
BACK -  OSCAR WHISKEY - 1st @ 3.25
EW - ZARKANDER -
OUTSIDER -  ROCK ON RUBY -
*A small field renewal with just the 6 and only 3 of those have any real chance of winning , and @ 1.21 for the dutch i think this is buying money , an absolute nailed on cast iron earner , if ya have £200 spare lump it on , take the £40+ Profit and spend it all on fosters Gold ;-).
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RACE 4 Aintree 15:25 
John Smith's Handicap Chase (Listed)
£60000.00 added, 5yo plus, 3m 1f, Class 1
BACK - CHAPOTTURGEON - 3rd @ 3.16
EW - BATTLE GROUP - 2nd @ 7.40 ( hit 1.30 in running, great finish )
OUTSIDER - CANNINGTON BROOK -
*An odd looking race with so many out of form, inconsistent or just very average with the exception of CHAPOTTUGEON , but even this plied its trade with the Hunters lto but does look the most reliable and does look the most likeliest of Winners.
Against it you have a very well treated Battle Group , a very light weight Marufo and the inconsistent Cannington Brook and backing any of those three requires a great deal of trust.
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RACE 5 Aintree 16:15 
John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap)
£975000.00 added, 7yo plus, 4m 4f, Class 2
BACK - WEST END ROCKER -
EW - KILLYGLEN -
OUTSIDER - CALGARY BAY -
*Now we have it the BIG one , the monster and mother of all NH races , the " National " with a full field of 40 taking their place this is a pinstickers paradise , the mums will be backing names and colours, dads will follow form , the shrewdies look at the stables and everyone else listens to everyone else lol...you dont get " tips " for the National , you can only use what i would term as a Judgement Call , Look for a bit of class, solid Jumping ability , solid stayer with gears and likes the ground , use these as key pointers and you shouldnt go far wrong!...never forgetting that in the National the phrase " Anything can happen " is most apt.
My 4 from the field are ,
1. KILLYGLEN -
With a recent win under his belt confidence shouldnt be a problem , was bang in contention last year until shipping 4 out now races off a 5lb lower mark and this has been the horses main aim all season , laid out and punted with the yard very bullish , great chance. 21.0

2.WEST END ROCKER -
A classy stayer bought down on the first circuit last year but reappeared this year on its first run winning the Becher Chase here at this track and over the National Course so has proved himself that he stays , jumps, quickens and has that bit of class , this is my 1st choice . 18.5

3.SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM -
Now personally i dont feel this will stay but Hendo Jnr is convinced it will  , seems to have ironed out its jumping frailties and does seem a much improved performer this term and is the mount of the mighty Geraghty which itself is worth a few pounds , this is probably my weakest choice as its more of a " if i dont and it wins im sick " kinda bet - 18.0

4.CALGARY BAY -
My fav outsider and a personal fav of mine , i love this horse and its done me proud over the years has loads of talent and class but has been beset with its fair share of bad luck , can jump well , does stay , likes most ground types and is resilient all in all i feel with luck in running ( which tbh applies to all ) should run well , i can see it hanging out the back on the first circuit, moving into midfield halfway thru the second then moving into contention and thru beaten horses at the end and on the long run in if there will run on and can go and go...65.0 
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RACE 6 Aintree 17:05 
John Smith's Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
£40000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110y, Class 2
BACK - KEALIGOLANE -
EW - DREAM ESTEEM - 2nd @ 13.4 ( hit 1.27 in running )
OUTSIDER - UBI ACE -
*Back to reality now and a very good races for the Amateurs and Conditionals and quite often with these it pays to side with the more accomplished riders.
My Favourite has to be Nina Carberry but she appears to have a very weak ride in Idarah whose only real piece of form was 2 runs back when ridden by NC had beaten the 136 rated Sportsmaster in a tough driving finish.
I would have to think that UBI ACE has a cracking chance with experienced Alan Berry riding along with DREAM ESTEEM who has arguably the best Jockey on in young Brendan Powell and Finally i also really like KEALIGOLANE with the very talented Lucy Alexander riding , this is bang in form , and interestingly enough other than Lucy the only other jockey to win on this is Nina Carberry lol when she rode it to win over in Wexford.
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RACE 7 Aintree 17:35 
John Smith's Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2)
£25000.00 added, 4-6yo, 2m 1f, Class 1
BACK - POPULATION - ( My LOTD and is Unplaced )
EW - SIR JOHNSON - 3rd @ 16.4 ( hit 2.5 in running )
OUTSIDER - HOWABOUTNOW -
*This is a ridic tough race to have as the Finale lol , no " getting out " here im afraid although i have nominated POPULATION as my LOTD  , this is based solely on its price at 3.4 ( i have down as a backable 5.2 ) in such a super tough race at 3.4 i will gladly Lay all Day!.
For the backers and the mentalists  i would suggest Howaboutnow EW & SIR JOHNSON EW.
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A great albeit tough day of racing , enjoy , relax and keep smiling , see you all on Monday ;-)x

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